Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about a weak rupiah? The Indonesian rupiah has fallen again over the past week, hitting a fresh 17-year low against the US dollar. The sharp drop in the currency, which is down by a cumulative 33% since the start of 2013... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks still low in most Ems Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that, for all the recent talk of an “EM crisis”, financial risks in most of the emerging world are low. There is certainly nothing in the CERI to... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack FM Jaitley is playing a risky game India’s Finance Ministry continues to tread on dangerous ground by becoming increasingly vocal in its calls for further monetary easing. Most recently in an interview over the weekend, Finance... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Faster wage growth unlikely to panic MPC Although the US Fed kept interest rates on Thursday, a rate rise across the pond is not far away. And on the face of it, the pick-up in UK pay growth revealed last week suggested that the Bank of... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fed inaction highlights need for more ECB stimulus The boost to activity and inflation from the euro’s weakening since last summer will soon begin to fade. The ECB might feel that it can wait for tighter monetary policy in the US to drag the euro... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is weak external demand holding back the recovery? The Bank of Japan has blamed weak exports for the recent sluggish performance of the economy, but domestic demand has hardly been vigorous either. We believe the Bank is pointing the finger at... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) August’s retail sales figures showed that the pace of spending growth on the high street has remained fairly feeble so far this quarter. But we doubt that this signals a more widespread slowdown in... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB on hold as franc weakens, but may yet cut again The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc and renewed increase in economic activity has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep policy on hold for the time being. But we think that renewed... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2) The disappointingly soft rebound in GDP in the second quarter supports our below consensus forecasts that the economy will grow by just 2.0% this year and that the RBNZ will cut interest rates from 2... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Aug.) Today’s trade data suggest that net trade remained a drag on GDP growth in Q3. 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry in the doldrums Industrial production growth in the emerging world remains very weak, with our aggregate measure of EM industrial output expanding by just 2.2% y/y in the three months to July – the slowest pace since... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Brexit wouldn't spell disaster for UK exports Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing a series of pieces of work looking at the impact that leaving the EU would have on the UK economy, culminating in a presentation at our annual conference... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) The August retail sales and industrial production reports highlight the continued divergence between a strong domestic economy led by healthy consumer spending and weakness in the export-orientated... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose to a record high in July, adding to the evidence that the economy got off to a good start in Q3. But we suspect that the trade surplus will fall in the second... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at the EM export slowdown Much of the gloom currently hanging over the EM world is warranted, but there are reasons to think that the slump in exports, at least, will start to reverse toward the end of this year. That said... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Exports also hit by commodity price falls It is widely understood that the value of China’s imports has been pulled down by falling commodity prices. Less well appreciated is that lower commodity prices also explain in large part why China’s... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
