US Data Response UoM Consumer Conf. (Sep.) & Producer Prices (Aug.) Although the slump in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index to a 12-month low of 85.7 in September, from 91.9, left it well below the consensus forecast at 91.1 it was almost exactly in... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker currencies part of the solution, not the problem The economic outlook for Latin America remains pretty gloomy. Weaker growth in China and lower global commodity prices will depress export revenues and, as incomes fall, cause domestic demand to... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Why have exports been so weak? The slump in commodity prices accounts for most of the decline in Asian exports this year, even in countries which are not major commodity exporters. 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to hold rates amid balancing act The decision to keep interest rates on hold today at 3.25% reflects the difficult balancing act facing the Malaysian central bank (BNM) as it continues to grapple with the problems caused by slowing... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Fresh commodity price weakness weighs on EM exports EM exports fell sharply in July on the back of the renewed drop in global commodity prices. And the early data suggest that things are unlikely to have improved last month either. 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q2) Ireland’s impressive recovery continued in Q2. And with the conditions in place for sustained rapid growth, it is set to remain the euro-zone’s fastest-growing economy. 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will commodity exporters continue to weigh on global growth? Fears about the health of the world economy have centred on China, but the bulk of the slowdown over the past year has actually been due to weaker growth in commodity exporters. The outlook varies by... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Balance of Payments (FY 2014/15) The whopping increase in Egypt’s current account deficit in the last fiscal year is likely to grab the headlines. But there is more to this than meets the eye. It largelyreflects an accounting issue... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2015) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs increased in August to their highest level since the global financial crisis. This was overwhelmingly due to flows out of China. By... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Greece take advantage of a devaluation? Anxiety about Grexit may have subsided but the underlying issues have not changed. Greece still needs a weaker currency. The well-worn argument that Greece would not be able to take advantage of a... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q2) Revisions to euro-zone GDP showed that the economy was slightly stronger in the first half of the year than previously thought. However, with inflation likely to fall and growth remain sluggish, we... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) Trade growth remained subdued last month but there are good reasons to think that the outlook is brighter than many believe. 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Revised) & Current Account (Jul.) While the economy shrank by slightly less last quarter than initially estimated, the first data for Q3 suggest that a rapid recovery in the second half of the year is not on the cards. 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has internal devaluation worked for Ireland? Since the financial crisis, internal devaluation appears to have provided only a modest boost to Ireland’s trade balance. More important to the economic recovery has been the pick-up in domestic... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How large is Saudi Arabia’s fiscal buffer? With oil prices still languishing at multi-year lows, Saudi Arabia’s budget position – which looks set to post a shortfall of close to 20% of GDP this year – has come under increasing scrutiny in... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Advanced economies looking resilient We expect developed economies to weather the fallout from China’s August “devaluation” and the subsequent weakness in world equity markets quite well. Activity in the emerging world has slowed further... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
