US Economics Weekly Activity data not yet a cause for concern We don’t think that the below-potential GDP growth implied by the recent activity data is a cause for concern yet, particularly while the labour market appears healthy. That will keep the Fed squarely... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s ‘supermajority’ worries, Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures The prospect of a Morena-led supermajority in Mexico’s congress following Sunday’s election could allow Amlo's proposed constitutional amendments to see the light of day, weakening Mexico’s... 7th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Export-led recovery, higher ECB forecast Data released this week showed that the euro-zone’s recovery in the first quarter was mainly driven by exports, with domestic demand still subdued. Nevertheless, the recent stronger-than-expected... 7th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly National accounts on balance dovish The upward revisions to consumption mean that household spending has more momentum than previously thought and raise the risk that households will spend most of the income tax cuts due on 1 st July... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a... 6th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth robust in Q1 but disparities persist Aggregate EM GDP growth remained strong in Q1, though we still expect a slowdown later this year. At a regional level, Emerging Asia will lead the pack, however there are tentative signs that... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (April 2024) Retail sales ticked down in April we expect them to rise gradually from here. 6th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) Russia’s economy appears to have had a slightly softer start to Q2, with industrial production and retail sales growth both slowing in April. Still, the latest indicators for May have remained strong... 5th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (May 2024) The rise in the ISM services index to 53.8 in May, from 49.4, meant that the weighted ISM index rebounded last month, despite a decline in the manufacturing index. That still leaves it consistent with... 5th June 2024 · 1 min read
Event Spotlight 2024: US outperformance and the future of macro and markets leadership 1718265600 The global economy has been marked by the outperformance of the US economy and its financial markets. But past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2024) The sharp pick-up in Brazil’s GDP growth to 0.8% q/q in Q1 is a temporary rebound from a weak patch in the second half of last year and doesn’t mark the start of a strong recovery. Still, the pace of... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2024) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the first quarter of the year and the latest evidence suggests that fragility has continued into Q2. A less acute drag from loadshedding should support... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (May ‘24) May’s batch of PMIs showed that private non-oil sectors have remained a point of strength in the Gulf economies at the mid-point of Q2 and this is likely to remain the case over the rest of this year... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
