US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) Industrial production was unchanged in June, as a weather-related drop in utilities output offset a 0.4% m/m rise in manufacturing output. But with global demand still weak, we doubt the latter... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Signals from timely indicators not as bad as they seem Several timely economic indicators have lurched down recently, suggesting that even our below-consensus global growth forecasts might be too optimistic. But some are not as reliable as is often... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish investment boom has further to run A further sharp rise in EU structural fund inflows will support strong Polish fixed investment growth over the next couple of years. But that won’t be enough to prevent overall GDP growth from slowing... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Upside risk to our Prague industrial rent forecasts The Czech economy has slowed over the past 18 months, which, alongside strong new development, has kept industrial rents in check. But, with signs of renewed vigour in occupier demand and rents... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Is this as good as it gets for households? The strength in consumer spending has been crucial to the economy’s resilience over the past year but there are three reasons why many people think that the consumer sector is living on borrowed time... 15th July 2019 · 12 mins read
Japan Economics Update What do nuclear restarts mean for Japan? Japan’s government will probably expand the number of operating nuclear reactors from nine now to 17 by 2030. While the impact on the trade balance will be tiny, electricity prices may fall... 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) A stronger end to the quarter didn’t prevent growth from slowing in Q2 and we see more weakness on the horizon. Activity held up better than anticipated, but we expect this strength to be temporary. 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Divergent trends in Swedish and Norwegian growth The Norwegian economy appears to have gathered pace in Q2, but the latest data from Sweden paint an increasingly gloomy picture for domestic demand. So while the Norges Bank will continue to buck the... 12th July 2019 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Consumer price inflation in India rose last month but the headline rate remains below the RBI’s target, while core inflation is no major concern. An August rate cut is almost certain. 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The much larger-than-expected drop in Mexican industrial production, of 2.1% m/m, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy, and is likely to push the central bank towards cutting interest rates at... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Prospect of higher interest rates drifting further away Despite the rebound in monthly GDP growth from -0.4% m/m in April to +0.3% m/m in May, the economy probably just about contracted in Q2 as a whole. Some of that is just payback from activity being... 12th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s strong increase in euro-zone industrial production should allay concerns about the wider economy falling into recession, but it is still consistent with GDP growth slowing in the second quarter... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (May) The stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production figures for May suggest that the economy may just have avoided a fresh fall in GDP in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect the economic recovery will be... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2 Advanced) The advanced estimate of Singapore’s GDP suggest the economy performed very poorly last quarter. Although the economy should start to pick up a little over the coming quarters, helped by looser fiscal... 12th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly (Another) fraud scandal at PNB, vehicle sales slump The latest fraud scandal engulfing Punjab National Bank – one of India’s largest state-owned banks – is a stark reminder that recent measures to revive the banking sector need to be supplemented with... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More evidence of Q2 recovery Activity data for May added to the evidence that the economy rebounded following its contraction in Q1. Even so, we think that the Reserve Bank will cut its policy rate from 6.75% to 6.50% next week. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
