Europe Data Response Ireland’s GDP (Q1 2019) Economic growth in Ireland appears to have slowed to little more than a crawl, which is likely to in part reflect concerns about the rising risk of a no-deal Brexit. We estimate that, if the UK left... 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Leading indicators point to slowdown, not recession Leading economic indicators underline that most of the recent weakness has been confined to the export-orientated industrial sector, suggesting the risks of an outright recession are contained for now... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Ailing auto sector still a drag on global industry The global industrial downturn so far has been fairly broad-based, but cars have fared particularly badly.While some temporary factors have been to blame, the longer-term drivers of the slowdown point... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech underperformance unlikely to continue The Czech economy has underperformed its regional peers in recent years due to its larger exposure to the euro-zone and weaker household spending. However, the Czech slowdown is close to bottoming out... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (May) Despite the rebound in monthly GDP in May, the economy may have contracted in Q2 as a whole. But it’s going to be close and we doubt we’re heading for a recession as GDP will probably rise in Q3... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that... 10th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Japan Economics Update A mini-bubble is building in Japan’s property market Froth has returned to Japan’s housing market, especially in urban areas where prices are now back to levels seen just before the collapse of the property bubble in the early nineties. A price... 10th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Lower rates failing to boost business investment The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys point to a contraction in business equipment investment and suggest that labour market conditions are starting to soften. 9th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension reform won’t revive economic growth Brazil’s pension reform bill would, if passed in its current form, reduce vulnerabilities stemming from the dire public finances. But we are sceptical that it would lead to the near-term turnaround in... 9th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Latest pick-up in productivity growth unlikely to last The recent acceleration in productivity growth to a decade high of more than 2% y/y has renewed hopes that we could finally be seeing a structural pick-up linked to a new wave of technological... 9th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates left unchanged but further easing likely Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at 3.0% today, but kept the door open to further easing. With growth set to slow in the second half of the year, we think the central bank... 9th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Ailing auto sector still a drag on global industry The global industrial downturn so far has been fairly broad-based, but cars have fared particularly badly. While some temporary factors have been to blame, the longer-term drivers of the slowdown... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) The small increase in output in May does not signal the end of the Germany’s manufacturing downturn. On the contrary, it now looks almost certain that production declined in Q2 overall, contributing... 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Shifting down a gear Following a strong start to the year, GDP growth is set to slow as domestic demand drops after the sales tax hike and external demand softens further. We think that the unemployment rate will creep... 8th July 2019 · 21 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) Despite a slump in May, machinery orders point to broadly stable capital spending in the second quarter. Even so, we expect investment growth to slow sharply over the coming quarters. 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell may temper market expectations of rate cuts The data this week were consistent with a continued slowdown in economic growth, but don’t yet look weak enough to convince the Fed to cut interest rates immediately. We suspect that Chair Jerome... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
