Japan Economics Weekly Trade war & peace The trade war between China and the US will cause some collateral damage but the biggest potential threat to Japan’s economy is a US tariff on Japanese cars. For now though, our base case is that the... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Stronger momentum in spending growth June’s retail sales figures were a little weaker than expected, with sales volumes falling by 0.5% on the month. However, some fall back in June always looked likely after two consecutive large... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional recovery gathering steam The raft of quarterly GDP data released over the past month confirmed that the MENA region rebounded at the start of this year and more timely figures suggest that the recovery is gathering momentum... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that the escalation of global trade tensions has resulted in an acceleration of outflows from the emerging world. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: SARB talks tough, but rate hikes still unlikely South African policymakers adopted even more hawkish language at today’s MPC meeting, but we still doubt that they will hike rates in 2019. The risks to our non-consensus view are, admittedly, growing... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Drop in oil prices keeps Bahrain in the spotlight The recent tumble in oil prices has raised the pressure on Bahrain to secure financial support from the rest of the Gulf and for the government to outline its fiscal consolidation plans. We still... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A shift in fiscal policy is coming The Ministry of Finance is pushing back against calls to loosen policy. It may have little choice but to oblige, however, if headwinds to growth intensify in the coming quarters as we expect. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland is faring better than GDP data suggest Ireland’s GDP contracted in Q1, but this tells us next to nothing about the underlying state of the economy. Other indicators are much more encouraging and, despite some big risks to the outlook, we... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: more rate rises likely despite today’s hold Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold today, but the hawkish tone of Governor Perry Warjiyo’s press conference and the accompanying policy statement reaffirm our view that further monetary... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Corporate defaults surge Corporate bond defaults in China have jumped recently, adding to worries about the economic outlook. July is on track to more than double the previous monthly record for the scale of onshore bonds... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The big quarterly rise in retail sales volumes in Q2 has provided yet more evidence that a consumer revival is now underway. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook positive, but risks are rising Most European economies have experienced a slowdown since last year, but growth is still strong by historic standards and prospects are fairly bright. Admittedly, trade protection poses a serious... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (June) Today’s trade data show a renewed plunge in imports in June and suggest that net trade continued to support GDP growth in the second quarter. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Renewed momentum gives MPC the green light With sustained rises in real wages now in prospect, real consumer spending growth should accelerate again. Of course, Brexit-related uncertainties and their economic effects could intensify over the... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) June’s activity data for Russia were a bit soft, but remain consistent with a pick-up in GDP growth from 1.3% y/y in Q1 to around 2.5% y/y in Q2. 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong second quarter unlikely to be repeated Our calculations suggest that second-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven by a rebound in consumption growth and a big export-fuelled contribution from net external trade. It... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
