China Economics Update Efforts to prop up infrastructure investment falling short Although fiscal policy has become more proactive lately, a reluctance to turn to off-budget borrowing means that policymakers aren’t yet doing enough to arrest the slowdown in infrastructure... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on pause ahead of October rate rise Even if NAFTA negotiations are concluded successfully this week, the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before it raises interest rates. 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy accelerated at the end of Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that rising oil output supported a pick-up in growth in Saudi Arabia at the end of Q2. We expect that the economy will perform better than most anticipate over the next twelve... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey entering a steep recession The latest Turkish activity data suggest that the plunge in the lira since May, and the associated sharp tightening of financial conditions, has tipped the economy into recession. Things are only... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery remains on track Frontier financial markets have endured a torrid 2018, but this hasn’t been accompanied by a deterioration in the hard activity data. Admittedly, growth in the largest frontier economy, Nigeria... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Chile and Peru to hold up well The surge in GDP growth in Q2 to more than 5% in Chile and Peru probably marks the peak in both countries’ economic cycle. But there is still some spare capacity left. And, as a result, we expect that... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update UK-Africa trade ties will remain limited UK Prime Minister Theresa May is using a visit to Africa to promote economic ties with the region, but we doubt that trade links between Britain and Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen over the coming... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The rebound in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure to a 17-year high of 133.4 in August is primarily a reflection of the current strength of the economy, but with the expectations index... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly New franc forecasts, Swedish election heats up The upward pressure on the Swiss franc eased this week and our forecasts for monetary policy in Switzerland suggest that the currency will continue to depreciate against the euro over the next couple... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly US tariffs, Greece and Italy all pose risks Greece’s exit from its bailout on Monday was widely hailed by European policymakers as a sign of success, but its problems are far from over. Meanwhile, comments from President Trump emphasised that... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending growth set to slow Consumer spending growth appears to have rebounded to about 2% annualised in the second quarter. But with real wage gains set to slow further, even that fairly-moderate growth rate seems unlikely to... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) Despite the decline in headline orders, the July durable goods data suggest that business equipment investment growth is set to rebound in the third quarter. That provides further reason to think that... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT signals rate hike, Malaysia pushes back on BRI Stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP figures this week and the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) increasingly hawkish rhetoric suggest a 25bp rate hike is likely at its next meeting on 19 th September. However, with... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey in crisis Turkey plunged into a full-blown currency crisis this month following the imposition of US sanctions and an absence of (or refusal to pursue) an orthodox policy response. Inflation, which was already... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the dollar pondering a Labor government? This week’s political chaos has increased the downside risks to the Australian dollar. Although the markets welcomed the news that Scott Morrison has replaced Malcolm Turnbull as Australia’s Prime... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
