RBNZ Watch Subdued data keep RBNZ on track to cut rates in May We expect the recent string of soft economic data will be enough for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut rates to 1.50% when it meets next week on Wednesday 8th May. Since the RBNZ shifted... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIS (Apr.) A slight improvement in the April PMIs fits with yesterday’s trade data from Korea in suggesting that the region’s economies have passed the worst. That said, we still expect regional growth to remain... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped again in April, but this is not a huge cause for concern. After all, the reading is still consistent with decent manufacturing output growth and we think that the... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a 2½-year low in April illustrates that, after the contraction in manufacturing output in the first quarter, US factory conditions have deteriorated further... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will firms pass on rises in labour costs? With CPI inflation still subdued, firms’ profit margins appear to have borne the brunt of the recent rises in wage costs. However, we suspect that firms will pass on rising costs to consumers in time... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are the euro-zone activity surveys too pessimistic? The official euro-zone activity data for Q1 were much stronger than the message from the business and consumer surveys. But we still think that the consistent weakness of the survey evidence bodes ill... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Shying away from borrowing to spend on big items The subdued rise in borrowing in March may be because Brexit has sapped households’ desire to borrow to buy big items. At the aggregate level, low interest rates mean that debt is still manageable. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The fall back in the manufacturing PMI in April was to be expected after activity was boosted by Brexit preparations ahead of the original Brexit date of 29th March, and suggests manufacturing output... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown has further to run After reaching a three-year high in Q4 2018, GDP growth in Saudi Arabia has slowed at the start of this year as the drag from oil output cuts has more than offset a pick-up in activity in the non-oil... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) Preliminary data showing a surprise 0.2% q/q contraction in Mexican GDP in Q1 made for ugly reading, and the risks to our above-consensus growth forecast for this year now lie firmly to the downside... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m decline in monthly real GDP in February was principally due to the unseasonably severe weather this winter and the associated disruption to rail transportation, which had a knock-on... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to subdued commodities demand The April survey data suggest China’s economy has entered a softer patch and underpin our view that most industrial and oil prices will ease back in the coming months. 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: More bad news across the region Figures released this month added to the evidence that African economies are struggling this year. The worst news was from South Africa and Angola, where recent activity data suggest that GDP actually... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) The first estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q1 and the labour market data for March were encouraging. But the timelier survey indicators have continued to weaken, and we expect the global economy to remain... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Taiwan held up surprisingly well last quarter, but we doubt this resilience will last. The breakdown of the figures show that domestic demand weakened further last quarter and that... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
