Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The larger-than-expected contraction in Brazilian industrial production in March, of 1.3% m/m, means that the Q1 GDP data are likely to be ugly. We’ll firm up our forecast when more data are released... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong Q1 data probably a false dawn The rebound in euro-zone GDP growth to a respectable 0.4% q/q in the first quarter of this year has been greeted by many as proof that the economy is back on track. But we suspect that the expansion... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Turkey This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Turkey’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC takes a hawkish turn, Brexit hangover in Q2 The most surprising news from the Bank of England’s Inflation Report this week was not the suggestion that interest rates need to rise more quickly than the markets currently anticipate, but the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Apr.) With Brexit having been delayed until 31st October, the slightly more upbeat tone of April’s IHS Markit/CIPS services survey was not too surprising. However, the PMI remained at a low level and we... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Imperial succession & trade talks The reduction in the number of working days will reduce the annual growth rate of industrial production and exports but it will have no impact on the more closely-watched monthly changes. Nor will it... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surge in productivity growth a key upside risk The acceleration in productivity growth suggests the economy’s supply side is responding to the tightness of labour markets and the tax cuts introduced early last year. With investment growth slowing... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global industry still struggling While composite PMIs have been overstating the weakness of overall economic activity in recent months, manufacturing PMIs have generally maintained a better relationship with the “hard” industrial... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI falls back as BRICs falter The drop in the headline EM manufacturing PMI in April was driven by weaker surveys out of all four BRIC economies. The breakdown of Markit’s aggregate EM survey showed that the rebound in EM exports... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update GDP growth still set to slow Neither the unexpectedly strong 3.2% gain in first-quarter GDP nor the outsized 0.7% m/m increase in real consumption in March changes our view that the US economy will experience a marked slowdown in... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Growth to rebound in Q2, before dropping back An unwinding of the temporary factors that weighed on activity in January and February means that GDP growth will rebound from 1% annualised in the first quarter to about 2.2% in the second. That... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why are the surveys weaker than the “hard” data? The “hard” data compiled by statistical agencies and policymakers have generally been rather better in advanced economies in the past month or so than the weaker surveys of economic activity. While... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Indonesia This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Indonesia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 in April, providing a rare reason for optimism about the sector. This supports our view that economic conditions will strengthen in Q2. 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s PMI data point to a sharp slowdown in industrial output in Central Europe in the coming months. The weakness in the euro-zone looks set to take a heavier toll on Czech industrial output... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics for April make for grim reading and suggest that economic conditions have stayed weak at the start of the second quarter. This supports our... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
