Europe Rapid Response Spain GDP (Q4 2024) The 0.8% q/q increase in Spain’s GDP in Q4 2024 was a bit stronger than expected as the economy brushed off the negative effects of the flooding in Valencia. The economy is likely to continue to... 29th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Dec. 2024) The fall in durable goods orders in December was due to the volatile transport component, whereas core and underlying capital goods orders both rose. While real underlying capital goods shipments... 28th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2025) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing... 28th January 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent jitters across the region, with... 27th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What if Trump imposes tariffs on Canada and Mexico? This Update answers some key questions about the likely implications of the US imposing 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Our current forecasts are based on the assumption of a 10% universal... 27th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: the new sick man of Asia Thailand’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has not only been much weaker than that experienced in other parts of Asia, but also compared with past crises. The weakness of the economy is the key... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (January 2025) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) remained in contractionary territory in January which supports the consensus and our own view that that Germany will eke out only a small expansion in GDP this... 27th January 2025 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jan. 2025) The Caixin services and composite PMIs released today add to growing evidence that China's economy lost momentum last month. The breakdown shows that the employment index of the Caixin composite PMI... 27th January 2025 (Updated 3rd February 2025) · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to price pressures intensifying At face value, the latest batch of flash PMIs suggest that economic activity remained weak in Europe at the start of the year and lost some momentum in the US. Meanwhile, price pressures seem to be... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Tariffs, transit fees, and terrorists The Trump administration’s first week has given policymakers in Latin America plenty to fret about. The 25% import tariff threatened on Mexico (as well as Canada) would, if implemented, hit the... 24th January 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: New year, same dilemma for the BoE The data released this week showing a mix of weaker economic activity but rising price pressures will do little to ease the Bank of England's policy dilemma. We suspect that the continued bad news on... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU still “in for tariffs”, ECB set for another rate cut Though President Trump reserved his main tariff threats for others this week, he still complained about the EU’s trade surplus with the US and suggested the bloc is “in for tariffs”. We think US... 24th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update The end is in sight for the Riksbank We think that next week the Riksbank will cut its policy rate for the final time this cycle, reducing it from 2.5% to 2.25%. After that, we do not see a need for policymakers to loosen policy any... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2025) Despite the small rise in the composite activity PMI from 50.4 in December last year to 50.9 in January, at face value it is still consistent with GDP stagnating at the start of Q1 after the economy... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrow Having hit a record high, we expect the trade-weighted US dollar to climb further in 2025. While the short-term danger that a strong dollar poses to the world economy tends to be overblown, the bigger... 24th January 2025 · 16 mins read
