Europe Economics Update

Taking stock of the German fiscal stimulus

With Germany’s fiscal stimulus now beginning to show up in the data, we think the increase in defence and infrastructure spending may be even slower and smaller than we had assumed – but that may be...

24th February 2026 · 5 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 26)

Sub-Saharan Africa is entering one of its best periods of growth since the 2010s, propelled by better terms of trade, low inflation and loose monetary policy. Our forecasts for most countries –...

24th February 2026 · 0 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Capital spending giving Qatar’s economy a lift

A pick-up in investment activity, coming alongside strength in the tourism sector, is likely to sustain rapid growth of 4-5% y/y in Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon economy. And once production at the North...

24th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Japan has got 99 problems but investment isn’t one

PM Takaichi is misdiagnosing what’s holding back Japan’s economy. This means that rather than boosting Japan’s long-term growth potential, her policies may instead unleash a wave of wasteful public...

24th February 2026 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s war on drugs & what it means for the economy

The immediate impact of the outburst of violence in Mexico following the killing of drug kingpin “El Mencho” is likely to be a hit to tourism. But the longer the unrest drags on, the bigger the risk...

23rd February 2026 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime

The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will...

23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2026)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set for the fastest pace of GDP growth...

23rd February 2026 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Ifo Survey (February 2026)

Although the German Ifo remained quite weak in February, we still think economic conditions in Germany are improving. And for now at least, it seems mostly likely that the US Supreme Court ruling and...

23rd February 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

Four years of war: stagnation grips Russia’s economy

Russia’s economy has proven remarkably resilient since the war in Ukraine began four years ago, underpinned by military-related stimulus, an ability to adapt to Western sanctions and disciplined...

23rd February 2026 · 15 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Peru ousts another president, Colombia rebalancing?

The ousting of Peru's President Jerí this week will have limited immediate economic implications given that Peru's balance sheet is strong. But political instability - which is unlikely to go away...

20th February 2026 · 5 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Retail Sales (Dec. 2025)

The unchanged level of retail sales volumes in December confirms that they fell over the quarter a whole, which would have dragged down goods consumption and contributed to the likely weak result for...

20th February 2026 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

US GDP (Q4 2025)

The government shutdown ended up being a much bigger drag on the economy than the Treasury’s data had suggested, with fourth-quarter GDP growth slowing to 1.4% annualised. Federal expenditure...

20th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Event

Europe Drop-In: Are we too bearish on the euro-zone outlook?

26th February 2026, 3:00PM GMT

Signs of life in the euro-zone economy have sparked hopes that a meaningful recovery may finally be underway. But our growth forecasts for this year and next remain below consensus.

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (February 2026)

India’s economic growth won’t match the pace of 2025 over the next couple of years, but India will remain a global outperformer. Prospects have brightened further as punitive US tariffs have come down...

20th February 2026 · 1 min read

China Economics Weekly

Economy to plod along in the Year of the Horse

Tuesday marked the first day of the Year of the Horse. Horse years are traditionally seen as years of energy and forward momentum but, with policymakers unlikely to loosen the reins much on fiscal...

20th February 2026 · 6 mins read