UK Economics Weekly Chancellor unlikely to help households as much as some hope Those expecting the Chancellor to unveil a big fiscal support package to shelter households from even higher energy costs in his Spring statement on 23 rd March may be sorely disappointed. Our best... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Further thoughts on the ECB Yesterday’s ECB decision was more hawkish than expected, so while we are sticking to our view that QE will end in Q3 and the Bank will raise interest rates in December, the risks are now skewed... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) Indian industrial production held steady in m/m terms in January, supporting our view that the Omicron hit to the economy was small. But looking ahead, the surge in commodity prices as a result of the... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly The near-term outlook has deteriorated The National People’s Congress concluded today with a pledge of policy support for the ailing economy from Premier Li. The next dose could come next week, when the PBOC has a chance to lower its MLF... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price surge to dent but not derail recovery We are reducing our GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 0.8%-pts on account of the surge in oil prices and the resulting hit to investment in particular. We now think the economy will grow by 9.2% this... 11th March 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Jan.) The cost of living crisis and the influence of the war in Ukraine probably means that the 0.8% m/m leap in GDP in January is as good as it gets for this year. Meanwhile, two-thirds of the huge 20% m/m... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s latest activity figures confirm that the economy entered a downturn at the start of this year as the surge in inflation triggered a further drop in retail sales and weaker domestic demand... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Soaring energy prices will slow consumption growth In our base case, soaring energy prices and pass-through of higher energy input costs to manufactured goods will knock off 1.5%-pts from households’ disposable income. While the still high savings... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russian energy sanctions, non-Gulf external strains build The US and UK embargoes on Russian energy exports could open the door for the Gulf countries to raise oil production more quickly and implement their long-term strategies of capturing market share... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy embargo to deepen Russia’s contraction The US and UK energy embargos will reduce Russian exports by just 0.6% of GDP, but adding in the EU’s plan to reduce Russian natural gas imports takes the total loss of export revenues closer to 2% of... 10th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor War in Ukraine heightens risks in fragile EMs Financial markets in Central Europe have been hit hard by the contagion from the war in Ukraine, but spill-overs to other EMs have been limited so far. If the war were to result in a sustained period... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The costs of Russia’s shift towards isolation It is highly likely that the war in Ukraine will accelerate Russia’s shift towards isolation and into autarky. This will prevent Russia from catching up with more advanced economies, while the West... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Higher forecasts for GDP, inflation and interest rates Surging commodity prices have led us to substantially increase our forecasts for consumer price inflation, but the negative impact of higher prices on household purchasing power, and therefore real... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Soaring energy prices unlikely to dent profits much The recent spike in energy prices will lift import prices in Japan by around 10%, but the increase would be twice as large if Russian energy exports were banned. Japan’s flagship manufacturing sectors... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics The influence of the war on the UK economy The UK is not as exposed to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine as the rest of Europe. Even so, in response to the surge in global commodity prices caused by the war we have dramatically... 9th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into Russian corporate debt risks The growing list of countries imposing restrictions on Russia’s energy exports has raised the likelihood of a deeper contraction in Russia’s economy this year and a wave of corporate defaults. This... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
