US Economics Weekly Activity weakening, despite labour market resilience The data this week suggested that the weak global backdrop is being compounded by a deterioration in domestic activity, although the labour market still appears to be in good health. Drop-Ins – The... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK’s business investment position will get even worse UK investment is already languishing well below that of its G7 counterparts and we suspect its investment and productivity position will worsen relative to its peers by the end of 2024. This raises... 6th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s energy crisis losing its bite The narrative surrounding Europe's energy crisis has shifted in recent weeks as warmer-than-normal winter temperatures have reduced heating demand, gas stocks have remained at high levels and gas... 6th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Contrasting outlooks for Swiss and Swedes The latest data underline Sweden is suffering both a sharper slowdown and higher inflation than Switzerland. Meanwhile, we expect to learn next week that underlying inflation remains uncomfortably... 6th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Some (moderately) good news on inflation and activity Data released this week suggest that headline inflation in the euro-zone has passed its peak, but that core price pressures remain strong. Meanwhile, the latest activity indicators have been a bit... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Tourism boost as China reopens, Vietnam struggling Tourism across Asia has rebounded strongly in recent months, with arrivals in most places now at around 45% of pre-crisis levels. The region will receive a further boost on 8th January, when China... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Another look at the PMI conundrum The PMI surveys for December released this week suggest that India’s economy was firing on all cylinders at the end of 2022. But they are at odds with several other indicators that point to a slowdown... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The latest EC Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe point to a regional decline in GDP in the order of 0.5% q/q in Q4, but it was encouraging that sentiment increased for the... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Nov.) Final HICP and ESI (Dec.) The fall in inflation and improvement in economic sentiment in December suggest that the euro-zone’s case of stagflation is not quite as acute as feared a few months ago. Nonetheless, a technical... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked up for a fourth consecutive month, to 53.1, in December but the backdrop of persistent power cuts, tight policy and a global recession means that we think that... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Manufacturing slumping, but tourism set to rebound Industrial production probably recorded the largest fall since the slump at the start of the pandemic last quarter. Q4 GDP will nonetheless rebound, helped by a strong recovery in services activity... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack At the back of the pack The 0.3% q/q contraction in Q3 left real GDP 0.8% below its Q4 2019 pre-virus level and the UK economy lagging even further behind its major counterparts. In contrast, GDP has risen above its pre... 5th January 2023 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Dec.) Our composite models continue to suggest that a recession this year is a near-certainty, with the implied odds of the economy being in recession in six months’ time and in one year’s time both above... 5th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year low of 48.4 in December, from 49.0, is another sign that the economy lost more momentum at the tail-end of last year. Nearly all the... 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does China’s end of zero-COVID mean for EMs? China’s abandonment of its zero-COVID policy could lead to supply chain disruption in other EMs, particularly other parts of Asia and Mexico, though we’re not too concerned yet. And outbound Chinese... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Post-Christmas catch-up: The global state of play Developments of the past two weeks reinforce the message that the world economy is headed for recession and disinflation in 2023. With the full effects of policy tightening yet to be felt, and re... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
