Rising services activity points to pick-up in Europe’s economy Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas said the findings “suggest that the eurozone economy is still flatlining” and that “underlying price pressures are easing again but remain high”. 21st March 2024 · Financial Times
Africa Economics Focus Will Africa unlock its potential? Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall... 21st March 2024 · 22 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar. 2024) While the composite activity PMI fell a touch in March, it still suggest that the UK economy has probably moved out of recession. This implies there is upside risk to our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 0... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) Poland’s stronger-than-expected activity data for February suggest that loose fiscal policy and continued fast wage growth helped the economy to recover at the start of this year. We maintain our... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, in line with our forecast. Meanwhile, the price components of the surveys suggest that underlying price pressures are... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Flash Composite PMI (Mar. 2024) The flash composite PMI reading for March suggests that the economy continues to perform exceptionally well. While growth is likely to moderate over the coming quarters, India will remain a global... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 24) The trade balance didn’t fall nearly as much as most had anticipated in February and net trade will only provide a small drag on Q1 GDP growth. 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2023) With the New Zealand economy in a double-dip recession, we’re sticking to our guns that the RBNZ will cut rates more aggressively than most anticipate. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy adding to the ANC’s struggles South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy continued to struggle at the start of 2024, which will hardly help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in parliament after May’s... 20th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global industry set for gradual recovery The latest data suggest that global industry may be coming back to life. Much of the improvement so far has related to China, where policy will continue to support domestic production. But falling... 19th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – On course for a soft landing 11th April 2024, 3:00PM BST The global economic outlook is subject to various uncertainties which have left forecasters split over the possibilities of a hard landing, soft landing or e
Europe Economics Focus Germany will be stuck in the slow lane The recent weakness of Germany’s economy is partly due to temporary factors which should ease this year. However, demographic and structural headwinds, partly driven by global fragmentation, mean the... 19th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: After the big vote – India’s macro and markets outlook 11th April 2024, 9:00AM BST In a big year for elections, this is the biggest.
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q4 2023) The 0.1% q/q rise in Chilean GDP confirms that the economy had a stop-start recovery over the course of last year, but we think that it will make more solid gains over the course of 2024. Our growth... 18th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Would Vietnam win a second trade war? Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated)... 18th March 2024 · 3 mins read
