China Economics Focus Ten key questions about China’s property market China’s economic prospects depend in large part on what happens to its property market. In this Focus, we answer the key questions on affordability, empty housing and over-investment that will... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can we trust the data? Questions are again being asked about whether we can trust China’s economic data. Our attempts to track the speed of the economy using our China Activity Proxy do not support suggestions of widespread... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Questions over credibility of China’s budget China’s budget planners have a history of wildly underestimating revenue growth, usually making actual net spending by the government far less supportive to the economy than originally planned. The... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China facing a property market collapse? Property developers in China are facing a grim year ahead, with a likely slump in project starts set to drag on broader economic growth. The sector should nonetheless be able to avoid a collapse... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How could China help the rest of the world? China has room to stimulate demand in the event of a slump in growth and could also play a role in stabilising global markets. But there is less space for a major stimulus today than in 2008. As then... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is investment-driven growth running out of steam? China’s investment-driven economic model is not showing signs of strain at present but growth is unlikely to be as smooth as most expect over the next few years. We have pencilled in a well-below... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can Asia avoid the middle-income trap? Most of emerging Asia should continue to grow rapidly for at least another decade, and much longer if the right policy choices are made. The key exception is China where, despite a bright long-run... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Unravelling the mystery of China’s trade data China’s trade surplus looks much smaller from within the country than it does from abroad. China’s customs data put the goods surplus last year at 3% of GDP. China’s trading partners reported a... 17th June 2011 · 11 mins read
China Economics Update Property tax falls short of (low) expectations The property tax plans that were announced yesterday look more like token measures than serious attempts to dampen property market speculation or provide local governments with a secure source of... 28th January 2011 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus What lessons should China learn from Japan's lost decade? Today’s tensions between China and the US have many echoes of those between Japan and the US in the 1980s including, most clearly, over the exchange rate. The lesson for China is not, as some have... 8th November 2010 · 14 mins read
China Economics Update The RMB as an international currency: don't believe the hype The government has announced a series of moves over the last month designed to push the renminbi along the road to becoming an international currency. But major obstacles stand in the way, not least... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s impossible trinity China is seeking to rein in bank lending and hold to a conservative fiscal stance while maintaining rapid economic growth. It cannot do all three. 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is China running out of cheap workers? China no longer has a surplus of underemployed workers in the countryside willing to move elsewhere for rock bottom wages, but it does still have a large and inefficient agricultural workforce. Their... 29th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Seven misconceptions about China We find it increasingly hard to recognise the inflation-ridden, bubble-filled China that we read about in the newspapers. Popular consensus seems to be settling on the view that China is overheating... 16th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China gearing up for its own lost decade? There are many parallels between the current lending boom in China and that in the late-1980s which brought down Japan’s economy. But there are several reasons to think China will avoid the same fate. 18th November 2009 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus A new angle on Chinese growth A little-noticed report published last week by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) gives arguably the best estimate yet of how much China’s economy slowed at the end of last year and how rapidly it has... 7th August 2009 · 1 min read
