Chief Economist's Note US chip reversal highlights policy incoherence in a fractured world President Trump likes to tell us that the United States “holds all the cards” in the ongoing trade war. Judging by the surprisingly mild inflationary impact of tariffs so far – less than most... 18th August 2025
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the economy already benefitting from an AI boom? Investment in both computer hardware and software surged in the first half of this year, which could be a sign that the AI boom is now boosting economic growth. Most of that hardware is imported... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Focus How the AI race will reshape global energy markets Artificial intelligence’s share of global electricity consumption is set to at least double by 2030, to around 3% of the total, and could drive almost half of electricity consumption growth in the US... 21st July 2025 · 15 mins read
Long Run Update Fears about AI-driven job losses are overdone A number of AI-linked redundancies have hit the headlines recently, reigniting fears that the adoption of AI will lead to a surge in unemployment. We continue to think that fears of a big long-term... 30th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Equities Update A new dawn for China's stock market? The near-term picture for China’s equities looks brighter than we’d previously thought, and we’re revising up our forecasts for them significantly. But, we still think they will underperform those in... 28th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect a further tech-led S&P 500 rally Despite growing concerns that tech stocks are "priced for perfection", and the ongoing threat of tariffs, we still expect the S&P 500 to rally over the remainder of this year. 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Focus Is AI a game changer for the US utilities sector? We think that the US utilities sector will outperform the other 'defensive' sectors in the stock market in 2025 and keep pace with the S&P 500, which we expect to rise to 7,000 this year, as utilities... 24th February 2025 · 13 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Private sector support, property prices President Xi's meeting with top tech leaders underscores a shift back to a more constructive attitude toward private firms that has been underway since 2023. Meanwhile, data out this week showed that... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Tech sector remixing will keep US office job growth weak It may seem odd that tech firms are likely to make further layoffs in 2025, while at the same time being one of the leading sectors for hiring intentions. But this broadly reflects cutbacks in less... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Long Run Outlook – The global economic order post-Trump 1741705200 Imagine a world after Donald Trump. The returned president’s rapidly unfolding policy agenda will have bearing on the US and global economies in the near-term.
Europe Economics Focus How far will the EU go on Capital Markets Union? EU policymakers have stepped up their calls for progress towards Capital Markets Union and there will be steps in that direction in the coming years. But we aren’t holding our breath for major change... 31st January 2025 · 14 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Economics Weekly: China’s AI shock, Year of the Snake The launch of DeepSeek's new AI model had US markets reeling at the start of this week, but we don't think it’s a sign that China's AI technology is poised to overtake the US. And while snake years... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily DeepSeek’s threat to US equity outperformance We don’t think US equity market outperformance is over yet, despite the challenge from DeepSeek. 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Is China overtaking in AI? DeepSeek’s success in developing AI models that rival those of US tech-giants has rattled US markets. While this does suggest that catching up to the technological frontier in AI may be easier than... 30th January 2025 · 5 mins read
