Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish economy turning the corner The slowdown in the Turkish economy in Q4 of last year appears to be the trough, and our GDP tracker suggests that growth has picked up to around 2.5% y/y at the start of 2013. Nonetheless, the... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's rate cut a cosmetic change Today’s cut in Turkey’s overnight lending rate is a cosmetic change, and doesn’t reflect an easing of policy. In fact, the central bank has tightened policy in recent weeks. And with domestic demand... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey leading the recovery, Russia lagging behind The latest activity data from Emerging Europe have been something of a mixed bag. Turkey is leading the recovery as a rebound in credit growth has fuelled domestic demand. Here, we think GDP growth... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Turkish property still a good bet, despite external vulnerabilities As the Turkish economy has grown increasingly dependent on short-term capital inflows to finance its current account deficit, direct investment has fallen. But while this suggests that foreign... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's external vulnerabilities on the rise again After a steady improvement over the past year, the narrowing of Turkey’s current account deficit stalled in January. What’s more, the latest data reveal an increasing dependence on short-term or “hot”... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market rally losing steam The rally in Emerging Europe’s financial markets has lost steam over the past few weeks. In part, this is due to the re-surfacing of tensions in the euro-zone following Italy’s inconclusive general... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging European property continues to lose its shine The relatively strong performance of Emerging European property markets in 2011 was not repeated in 2012. The softening economic backdrop did little to support rental growth, while yields appear to... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs data point to rebound in growth in Q1 February’s PMI data add to recent evidence that the slump in Emerging Europe has bottomed out and that growth in the first quarter of this year should be an improvement on the final quarter of 2012... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Bottoming out GDP data released over the past month showed that growth in Emerging Europe slumped to a postcrisis low of just 0.8% y/y in the final quarter of last year. Nonetheless, the latest surveys suggest that... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Outlook improves, but downside risks remain Growth in Emerging Europe sank to a post-crisis low in the final quarter of 2012 but the latest surveys suggest that the outlook has brightened a little since the turn of the year. We expect growth to... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers in a Catch-22 Although the Turkish central bank cut interest rates today, it also raised reserve requirements, so the overall impact on monetary conditions is ambiguous. The key point is that policymakers are in a... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: investment slump points to weaker trend growth The sharp slowdown in Russian growth towards the end of last year has drawn attention away from a much more important point: namely that it was driven by a slump in investment. In this month’s Watch... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower inflation is key to Turkish competitiveness The appreciation of Turkey’s real exchange rate has raised speculation that monetary policy could be loosened to weaken the lira. However, the most effective way to improve Turkey’s export... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets rally as euro-zone fears recede This is the first edition of our new monthly Emerging Europe Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse the developments in local markets over the past month and give an update on... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone risks ease but banks remain fragile The continued improvement in sentiment towards the euro-zone has simultaneously eased external funding conditions for Emerging Europe’s banks and reduced the threat of financial contagion from the... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show first signs of green shoots The latest batch of manufacturing PMI data from Emerging Europe provide the first signs that the region’s economy is turning around. However, for now at least, the recovery appears to be concentrated... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
