Emerging Europe Economics Update What might the next twist in Turkish monetary policy be? The Turkish central bank appears ready to add to its policy toolkit in order to support the lira. No details have been provided yet, but our best guess is that, if new measures are introduced, they... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Prospects for Emerging European equities are Poles apart A number of equity markets in Emerging Europe – Poland’s in particular – have proved relatively resilient during the recent emerging market sell-off. We think they may continue to outperform equities... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Coming through the EM sell-off relatively unscathed Emerging European currencies have generally withstood the recent EM financial market sell-off relatively well. Meanwhile, equities in Central Europe have made strong gains over the past month. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey continues to tighten The further hike in Turkish interest rates today merely underlines how vulnerable the economy is to the recent slowdown in capital inflows. Looking ahead, much will depend on how the current EM sell... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth comes with mounting risks Turkey’s economy has picked up pace over the first half of this year, but this has been fuelled by a sharprise in credit and has come at the expense of a renewed widening of the current account... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe picks up pace in Q2 Growth in Central Europe accelerated in Q2, helped by improving conditions in the euro-zone, but the economies of South Eastern Europe seem to have weakened once again. The potential for further flare... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data likely to provide grounds for optimism The raft of GDP data due over the next few weeks is likely to show that growth in Emerging Europe picked up in the second quarter of this year. However, while the region as a whole seems to have... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update July’s PMIs point to continued recovery in Central Europe July’s manufacturing PMI surveys suggest that the recovery that started in Poland and the Czech Republic towards the end of the second quarter continued in the first month of the third quarter. Both... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe picking up, Russia still in the doldrums The slowdown in Emerging Europe appears to have bottomed out in recent months and there are tentative signs of a turnaround in regional growth. At a country level though, it’s actually been a... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How far do Turkish rates need to rise? In a statement last week the governor of Turkey’s central bank, Erdem Basci, gave markets a strong steer that interest rates would be raised at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. But this is unlikely to result... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Hungary really turned the corner? Hungary has been buoyed by a raft of good news over the past few months. Q1 GDP data showed that the economy exited recession, the budget deficit has narrowed to the extent that the European... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Turkish savings need to rise The fall in the lira and the sharp rise in bond yields over the past month have cast the spotlight back onto Turkey’s persistent current account deficit and dependency on foreign capital inflows. At... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Emerging Europe doomed to lag behind? There are encouraging signs that the slowdown in Emerging Europe has bottomed out in recent months and we think growth should strengthen over the second half of this year. The recovery will remain... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: volatility to remain the order of the day The scale of yesterday’s intervention by the Turkish central bank to defend the lira underlines the vulnerabilities that have built in the country’s economy. We are tweaking some of our forecasts, but... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to evidence of improvement in Eastern Europe The latest batch of Emerging European manufacturing PMIs adds to the growing sense that things are improving in the region. This reinforces our view that growth in the second half of this year is... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions still tight Our latest Banking Heat Map suggests that credit conditions in most countries in Emerging Europe remain extremely tight. The main exception is Turkey, where credit growth has accelerated again in... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
