Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to weaken further in 2013 Inflation is falling sharply across Central and South Eastern Europe and we expect this to continue into next year. This should encourage further policy stimulus in the Czech Republic and Poland... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Outlook for the Turkish lira still clouded by external risks Concerns are mounting that Turkey will be faced with a fresh wave of “hot” capital inflows. As it happens, we don’t think this is a credible threat – we expect a fresh escalation of the euro-crisis to... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey struggling but current account limits room for easing The latest data from Turkey paint a pretty gloomy picture: Q3 GDP was weaker than expected and October’s industrial production figures suggest that the economy has made a poor start to Q4. The central... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian elections to put leu under spotlight The run-up to Romania’s parliamentary election on Sunday has been surprisingly quiet. But we think the markets may be underestimating the risk of fresh turbulence following the vote. 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s manufacturing stabilises November’s PMIs were a positive surprise for Central Europe, where it looks like the manufacturingsector stabilised. Elsewhere, signs that Turkey’s exports may be flat-lining are worrying as they mean... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth slows, markets rally A raft of recently released Q3 GDP data for Emerging Europe paints a pretty gloomy picture. The Czech and Hungarian economies are still stuck in recession, while even the region’s better performers –... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Slowdown has further to run A strong labour market combined with low and stable mortgage rates have not been able to prevent a small rise in mortgage arrears. Possessions are currently being kept low by continued lender... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little underlying improvement in Turkey's external deficit The upgrade to Turkey’s credit rating last week came in spite of the fact that there has been little underlying improvement in its sizeable current account deficit. This leaves the economy exposed to... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Turkey's sovereign debt upgrade lower property yields? At the margins, a case could be made that Turkey’s sovereign debt upgrade could boost investor sentiment towards all Turkish assets, including property. But, in 2013, given the prospect of tight... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The slowdown spreads Third quarter GDP data, which are due to be released by most countries over the coming month, are likely to make fairly grim reading. We estimate that regional growth slowed to around 1.5-2.0% y/y in... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish upgrade unlikely to be a game changer for markets Today’s decision by Fitch to raise Turkey’s sovereign debt rating to investment grade is likely to have only a limited impact on financial markets since the move seems to have already been priced in... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish stock market rally looks overdone Turkish equities have risen by over 40% since the start of the year, but we think that macroeconomic frailties and weaker global risk appetite could bring this rally to an abrupt end. 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s manufacturing still in recession The latest PMIs show that manufacturing in the highly open economies of Central Europe remains in recession due in large part to falling external demand. By contrast, the Turkish PMI data provide... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Economic slowdown spreads to strongest performers The slowdown across Emerging Europe has intensified in recent months. We reckon that the region’s economy expanded at an annual pace of around 1.5-2.0% in Q3, down from 2.5% in Q2 and an average of 4... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate cut a symbolic move Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut its overnight lending rate – which forms the upper bound of its “interest rate corridor” – is a largely symbolic move that is most likely... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tax hikes won’t prevent inflation from falling The hikes in indirect taxes announced by the Turkish government over the past few weeks will not prevent inflation from falling further towards the end of this year. But even so, current account... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
