Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: from bright spot to black spot? In some respects, Turkish fourth quarter GDP data simply confirm what we already knew – the economy picked up pace towards the end of last year and ended 2010 on a high note. But the sheer pace of... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth to slow in the second half The recovery in Emerging Europe remains broadly on track. GDP growth rates are likely to prove solid, if not spectacular, in a number of countries over the coming years with Turkey, Poland and, in the... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT steps up pace of tightening Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to raise bank reserve requirements by a massive 400bp should help to calm market fears that it has fallen behind the curve in the face of booming... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How exposed is Turkey to the Middle East crisis? Growing concerns over unrest in the Middle East have sparked a sell-off in equity markets across the world over the past week, and Turkish stocks have been hit harder than most. Yet trade and... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers in 'wait and see' mode Today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.25% suggests that the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) has reached the end of its rate-cutting cycle. While policymakers’ unconventional policy... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices don't explain the rise in Turkey's external deficit Turkey reported another large shortfall on its current account in December, which pushed the deficit for last year as a whole to 6.4% of GDP. Rising oil prices partly explain the increase in the... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Turkish monetary policy really a recipe for disaster? The Central Bank of Turkey’s policy of cutting interest rates to deter speculative capital inflows despite the economy’s comparatively good growth prospects is not necessarily the recipe for disaster... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey still focussed on cutting the carry Despite today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut interest rates, increases in bank reserve requirements that are likely to be announced over the next couple of days mean that... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A two speed 2011 2010 has been a year of recovery for Emerging Europe. This process should continue in 2011 but there are at least three important points for investors to bear in mind. First, growth is unlikely to... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey takes a bold step to stem speculative inflows Tonight’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 6.5% is a bold step aimed at slowing speculative capital inflows. Ultimately it may have to be... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Monetary policy to get creative in 2011 For much of Emerging Europe growth concerns continue to outweigh inflation worries. Accordingly, monetary policy will remain accommodative in most countries next year. The exception to this is Turkey... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish economy becoming increasingly unbalanced Annual Turkish GDP growth slowed more sharply than expected in Q3, but the economy appears to have fared better in the fourth quarter and is still set to outperform the region over the coming years... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recovery continues but divergences set to widen in 2011 Emerging markets as a whole are likely to outperform the developed world by a wide margin over the next couple of years but Emerging Europe is still facing a twin speed recovery. While some economies... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q3 GDP data reaffirm twin speed recovery (Nov 10) Emerging markets as a whole are likely to outperform the developed world by a wide margin over the next couple of years, but Emerging Europe is still facing a twin speed recovery. This was borne out... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC split down the middle The acceleration in headline inflation seen across Emerging Europe in recent months has been driven predominantly by a rise in food prices. This follows droughts in Russia and widespread flooding... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: widening imbalances are the risk, not slowing growth Data showing that Turkish industrial production fell in September grabbed a few headlines earlier this week. This is perhaps understandable given that manufacturers have so far led the recovery. But... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
