Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey skirting hard landing but vulnerabilities persist Turkish Q1 GDP data showed that the economy has so far avoided the hard landing that we had feared. What’s more, leading indicators point towards a modest improvement in Q2. Nonetheless, with the... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturers in Central Europe feeling the squeeze June’s PMI data provide further evidence that manufacturers in the highly open economies of Central Europe are being hit hard by the crisis in the euro-zone, while those in Russia and Turkey are... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would euro break-up mean for Emerging Europe? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone could knock some 2-3% off the level of Emerging Europe’s GDP by the end of 2013. But a bigger, more disorderly, break-up would... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging European dollar bonds likely to lose their shine Despite the escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone, which has taken a heavy toll on bonds issued by troubled governments within the region, the dollar-denominated sovereign debt of emerging market... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook worsens This month’s data brought further evidence – if any were needed – that the euro-crisis is casting a long cloud over Emerging Europe. Business surveys have deteriorated further, suggesting that growth... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC eases slightly, but rates to remain high The Turkish MPC shifted slightly towards easing mode at today’s meeting. Nonetheless, with the current account deficit still large and a sharp rise in short-term external debt, we expect monetary... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are shopping centre development pipelines in CEE too large? A low stock of shopping centre floorspace and relatively fast trend rates of consumer spending growth might suggest that the large shopping centre development pipelines in CEE could be absorbed... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The PMI puzzle Manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe have weakened significantly over the past couple of months as the economic outlook has darkened. The one crumb of comfort, however, is that they have not fallen as... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro-crisis takes centre stage The crisis in the euro-zone continues to cast a long shadow over the outlook for Emerging Europe. Most countries are already feeling the effects of weaker export demand, and the very open economies in... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE industrial rental value outlook brightest in Russia and Turkey Relatively strong domestic demand is likely to support industrial occupier markets in Poland, Russia and Turkey over the next couple of years. This should ensure that all three markets outperform the... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Investors shun Emerging Europe in the first quarter Most of the non-euro-zone European economies grew in Q1 2012. However, economic sentiment has been below normal in a majority of these countries and property investment volumes fell sharply in CEE in... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-crisis taking a heavy toll on Emerging Europe’s industry May’s manufacturing PMI data provide further evidence – if any were needed – that the euro-crisis is hitting the economies of Emerging Europe. Industry already appears to be in recession in much of... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What can policymakers do to limit financial contagion? There are several ways that, in theory, policymakers in Emerging Europe could limit any financial contagion arising from a disorderly break-up of the euro. But in practice, we suspect that building... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update External financing risks resurface for Hungary and Turkey Policymakers in both Hungary and Turkey kept rates on hold today, but clearly talk of looser policy to support growth is premature. 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Caught in the crossfire Emerging Europe’s financial markets have been battered over the past month amid growing fears of a disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone. Equities are down by around 10% in most of the region... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe’s currencies caught in the crossfire The growing risk of Greece leaving the euro-zone has taken a heavy toll on Emerging Europe’s currencies. Most are now back at their lows seen in the autumn of last year. Looking ahead, there is... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
