Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank quashes hopes for looser policy The accompanying statement to today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left on hold, is likely to quash hopes that have been growing in some quarters for looser policy in response to... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish government too upbeat on growth and inflation Turkey’s recently-published 2015-17 Medium-Term Programme shows that the government remains overly-optimistic on the economy’s growth prospects and still hasn’t acknowledged the strength of underlying... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ruble’s decline and what it means for Russia The steep fall in the ruble over the past month will affect different parts of the economy in different ways. The government is likely to be one of the major winners. By contrast, consumers are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira has further to fall The rise in the Turkish lira today has brought some respite to the beleaguered currency. And with the central bank now tightening monetary conditions, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a modest rally in... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to activity stabilising September’s PMIs suggest that the slowdown in the region’s manufacturing sector may have stabilised towards the end of the third quarter. Encouragingly, the Polish PMI edged up, having fallen for the... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off highlights divisions in rate outlook The sharp sell-off in the Russian ruble and Turkish lira this month couldn’t have come at a worse time for policymakers. Growth is sluggish in both countries, but high inflation and concerns about... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What impact will Turkey’s slowdown have on its retail sector? The significant fall in the Turkish lira, coupled with a consumer-sector slowdown, will ensure that landlords of secondary schemes continue to face downwards pressure on rents. However, Turkey’s prime... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey comes back into the firing line There has been a broad-based sell-off in Emerging European markets over the past month, but those in Turkey have suffered some of the heaviest losses as a renewed focus on Fed tightening has brought... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank keeps rates on hold, policy to remain tight The Turkish central bank kept its key interest rates unchanged today, but there are signs that policymakers have started to tighten monetary conditions via the interest rate “corridor” to counter the... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Problems at Bank Asya turn attention to Turkey’s bank risks The near-collapse of the Turkish Islamic bank, Bank Asya, seems to be an isolated incident, the result of political feuding more than bad credit decisions. But it has put the spotlight back onto... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone more to blame for Q2 slowdown than Ukraine The slowdown in Central and South Eastern Europe in the second quarter has raised concerns about the region’s exposure to the crisis in Ukraine. In this Watch, we dig deeper into the GDP data to see... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish economy slows sharply on weak domestic demand Today’s weaker-than-expected Turkish Q2 GDP data reinforce the point that interest rate hikes earlier in the year are continuing to weigh on domestic demand. The poor figures are likely to result in... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Economic Outlook The recovery in Emerging Europe has fizzled out in recent months and we think growth will be sluggish over the coming quarters. The crisis in Ukraine presents one headwind, particularly for Russia... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Hunt for yield will drive investors east Over the first half of the year, capital values in the Emerging European commercial property markets were little changed, while values in non-euro-zone Western markets edged a little higher. Over the... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update August’s PMIs suggest growth in Central Europe slowed further Last month’s batch of manufacturing PMIs suggests that the recent slowdown in the Turkish economy may have bottomed out but it provides yet further evidence of weakening growth in Central Europe. 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers too sanguine on external vulnerabilities The decision by Turkey’s central bank to cut its overnight lending rate, which forms the upper bound of the corridor in which market rates are allowed to fluctuate, suggests that it is becoming less... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
