Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC cuts rates, but monetary conditions to stay tight Today’s 50bp cut in the Turkish one-week repo rate, to 7.75%, doesn’t necessarily mark an easing of monetary conditions. It’s much more important to look at interbank interest rates, and these have... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Nov.) Weak exports and strong non-oil imports caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen in November, in spite of the sharp fall in oil prices. All in all, the data provide early signs that Turkey is... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey & Hungary Republic Ind. Prod. (Nov.) The weakness of Turkish industrial production in November, which grew by just 0.7% y/y and fell by 0.1% over the month, provides an early sign that GDP may have contracted over the quarter. In... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three political risks to watch out for in 2015 2014 was the year that political risk returned to Emerging Europe and the political and economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to reverberate this year too. But we think there are... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The sharp fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 8.2% y/y from 9.2% y/y, was an encouraging development, but core inflation remained extremely high. Elsewhere, December’s batch of manufacturing PMI... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Acc. (Oct.) & Hungary CPI (Nov.) Turkey’s current account deficit continued to decline in October and the fall in oil prices means it should narrow even further, towards 5% of GDP, over the coming months. Meanwhile, Hungary’s CPI... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Today’s weaker-than-expected Turkish Q3 GDP data highlighted that domestic demand remained extremely sluggish and are likely to result in further government pressure on the central bank to lower... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Prime yields to fall for another three years The stance of monetary policy is likely to stay exceptionally loose for the foreseeable future. And coupled with low inflation, we expect bond yields to stay lower for longer. Therefore, it seems... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey & Czech Republic Ind. Prod. (Oct.) The modest weakening of Turkish industrial production in October reinforces our view that, while the slowdown in the economy has now bottomed out, it’s likely to be a sluggish recovery from here on... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit Turkey Comments from Turkey’s Finance Minister, Mehmet Simsek, that the sharp fall in oil prices will remove the economy’s status as one of the most fragile in the emerging world have some basis. The current... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (November) The rise in Turkish inflation to 9.2% y/y in November, which came in spite of the sharp drop in oil prices, underlines the strength of underlying price pressures in the economy. Given this, it’s... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC reiterates concerns about inflation The accompanying statement to today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, once again suggested that the Council remains concerned about the poor inflation outlook. This... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3), Pol. CPI (Oct.) & Turkey Current Acc. (Sep.) Russia’s economy performed better than even we had expected in Q3, but this predates the most recent slump in oil prices. We still expect the economy to slip into recession next year. Elsewhere... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Credit bubbles deflate – but at the cost of weaker growth There are encouraging signs that the credit bubbles that had been building in a handful of major EMs are now deflating. But this process has only just begun – and the modest slowdown in credit that we... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
