Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ set to hike, but it will be a close-run thing We expect the RBNZ to begin its tightening cycle next week with a 25bp hike. With firms’ pricing intentions elevated, the Bank will want to guard against higher near-term inflation becoming embedded... 1st July 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to hike as inflation concerns dominate The RBA has already shifted policy back to restrictive territory and we expect it to tighten settings a bit further, as it seeks to ensure that activity slows sufficiently to bring inflation under... 25th June 2026 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ on track to hike, One Nation gains ground The 0.8% q/q rise in New Zealand's GDP in Q1 was flattered by residual seasonality and overstated the economy's underlying momentum. Even so, with the RBNZ increasingly concerned about inflation risks... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A cooling housing market but the RBA’s job isn’t done Australian consumers remain deeply pessimistic, particularly about the housing market, with house price expectations falling to a three-year low and auction clearance rates continuing to weaken. Even... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA alert to inflation risks even as growth softens The Australian economy slowed noticeably in Q1. Although private demand appeared resilient, thanks largely to the data-centre construction boom, the weakness in household consumption remains a cause... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A June pause doesn’t mean the RBA is done hiking A string of soft April activity and inflation figures, alongside survey data showing firms dialling back their capex plans, will give the RBA room to leave rates on hold in June. However, we suspect... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ set to hike rates in July The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold today came down to the wire, and it signalled that it would need to unwind its accommodative stance sooner rather than later. Accordingly, we’re bringing... 27th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (May 2026) The RBNZ narrowly voted to leave rates on hold today and it seems like a hike could come sooner than our current forecast of Q4. That said, with the output gap still deeply negative, the Bank doesn’t... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to stay put, while maintaining policy optionality The RBNZ is likely to leave rates on hold at its meeting next Wednesday, while stressing that it stands prepared to tighten policy if inflationary pressures show signs of persistence. In our baseline... 20th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Live chance of a rate hike at RBA’s June meeting Business surveys suggest that inflationary pressures continue to gain momentum in Australia. Although some of the increase in firms’ pricing intentions likely reflects noise, the RBA will still be... 15th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 7th May 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2026) The slight fall in the jobless rate in Q1 won’t change the RBNZ’s assessment that labour market is operating with substantial excess capacity. Accordingly, we continue to believe that the Bank won’t... 6th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Plenty of inflation still in the pipeline for Australia While the pickup in Australia’s inflation rate in Q1 fell short of the analyst consensus, it remains far too high for the RBA’s comfort. Moreover, with the indirect effects of higher energy prices on... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation risks continue to climb higher in Australia Australia's flash PMIs suggest that business conditions bounced back in April, while firms' hiring intentions strengthened in tandem. However, firms have yet to see any respite from intensifying price... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2026) While headline inflation remains well above the midpoint of the RBNZ’s target, the continued softening of underlying inflation means that the Bank won’t be in a rush to tighten policy. 21st April 2026 · 2 mins read
