Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why the RBA will ease sooner than most expect Although the analyst consensus expects the RBA to cut rates only in September, we're sticking with our view that the RBA will loosen policy as early as May. For one thing, the household cash flow... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian labour market still set to turn Leading indicators suggest that employment growth in Australia is unlikely to slow meaningfully in the near term. However, even if job creation remains resilient, it is unlikely to keep pace with the... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Migration curbs won’t adversely dent labour supply The ongoing boom in net overseas migration to Australia is helping to take the heat out of the labour market. With public attitudes towards mass migration souring, the government announced this week... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2023) Output slumped anew in Q3, and we suspect it remained in contractionary territory this quarter as well. Accordingly, we think the RBNZ will be cutting rates a lot sooner than it is currently... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What to make of the RBNZ’s new framework We doubt that the removal of the RBNZ’s employment objective would make much difference to economic outcomes, but forcing the Bank to achieve its inflation target within too short a period of time... 11th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rate cuts will be in play sooner than most expect The RBA's revised Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy has been interpreted as hawkish by some commentators. However, our view is that the new statement doesn't meaningfully alter the RBA's... 8th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update NZ bond yields’ divergence from other DMs may be over We think that long-term sovereign bond yields in New Zealand – which are currently among the highest in the developed world – will fall back to similar levels as those elsewhere over the next couple... 30th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting (Nov. 23) 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will signal that tightening cycle is over The labour market is weakening in earnest and inflation is falling faster than anticipated. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand therefore won’t lift interest rate any further at its upcoming meeting on 29... 22nd November 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe that central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are done... 17th November 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to loosen, infrastructure outlays to ease Data released this week showed that Australia's labour market remained tight in October, while wage growth accelerated to a 14-year high in Q3. However, with leading indicators suggesting that the... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Antipodean central banks are done tightening The RBA's decision to lift rates by 25bp earlier this week does not mark a full-fledged resumption of its hiking cycle. Rather, we believe the Bank was simply taking out additional insurance to make... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recession still likely in Australia Timely data suggest that both goods and services consumption gained traction last quarter. Therefore, even with a huge drag on growth from net trade, it increasingly appears that the economy managed... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2023) With the balance of demand and supply in the labour market showing further improvement, we’re more convinced than ever that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand won’t lift rates any higher. 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for developed market government bonds In line with our upwardly revised forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield, we’ve raised our projections for 10-year government bond yields in most other developed market economies. But we still... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stakes rise for RBA’s November policy decision With inflation surprising on the upside and the labour market running out of spare capacity, the case for the RBA to tighten policy has never been more compelling. Although RBA Governor Michele... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read