Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Next move is still down for Antipodean central banks Although the RBA refused to rule out additional interest rate increases at its meeting this week, we suspect a cooling economy will obviate the need for further policy tightening. That said, in... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4 2023) Although the unemployment rate last quarter came in below the RBNZ’s expectations, leading indicators continue to point to a rapid loosening of labour market conditions this year. Accordingly, we... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A tale of two central banks Inflation is moderating rapidly in Australia, despite elevated shelter costs. Moreover, there's little evidence to suggest that a tight housing market is supporting domestic demand through housing... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update The worst may be over for the Australian and NZ dollars We don’t expect the Australian and New Zealand dollars – which have been two of the worst-performing G10 currencies this year – to fall much further. 2nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Regulatory changes won’t affect house price outlook The Reserve Bank of New Zealand launched a consultation on changes to its macroprudential framework last week. In our view, the proposed tweaks are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the housing... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tax cut revamp unlikely to prove inflationary Some commentators have raised concerns that the Australian government's changes to forthcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts could add fuel to the inflation fire. However, we remain sceptical, given that... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 23) With inflation falling rapidly, risks are tilted towards the RBNZ cutting rates sooner than Q3, as we’re currently predicting. 23rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Homebuilding slump isn’t as bad as it seems With new dwelling commencements falling to a 11-year low, some commentators have raised concerns that a lack of housing supply will fuel a resurgence in inflationary pressures. However, we're not... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait... 18th January 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to moderate rapidly Inflation fell sharply in November and while the quarterly CPI due later this month will show that it was still above 4% in Q4, monthly prints should soon start with a 3. With the unemployment rate... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why the RBA will ease sooner than most expect Although the analyst consensus expects the RBA to cut rates only in September, we're sticking with our view that the RBA will loosen policy as early as May. For one thing, the household cash flow... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian labour market still set to turn Leading indicators suggest that employment growth in Australia is unlikely to slow meaningfully in the near term. However, even if job creation remains resilient, it is unlikely to keep pace with the... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Migration curbs won’t adversely dent labour supply The ongoing boom in net overseas migration to Australia is helping to take the heat out of the labour market. With public attitudes towards mass migration souring, the government announced this week... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2023) Output slumped anew in Q3, and we suspect it remained in contractionary territory this quarter as well. Accordingly, we think the RBNZ will be cutting rates a lot sooner than it is currently... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What to make of the RBNZ’s new framework We doubt that the removal of the RBNZ’s employment objective would make much difference to economic outcomes, but forcing the Bank to achieve its inflation target within too short a period of time... 11th December 2023 · 3 mins read
