Europe Economics Weekly Markets gamble on the ECB The financial markets seem to be gambling that the European Central Bank and Germany are bluffing when they say they are not about to come to the euro’s rescue. But given the obstacles still in the... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro break-up will leave no country unscathed We expect a limited form of euro-zone break-up in the next two years to cause widespread economic disruption across the region. And with recent indicators already pointing to recession in a number of... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC business and consumer surveys support the message from other timely indicators that the euro-zone is entering a deep recession. 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How and when will the euro-zone break up? The continued escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis suggests that some form of break-up of the currency union is now likely to come sooner rather than later. We expect Greece to leave the euro in... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Weaker investment flows in the pipeline Uncertainty about the euro-zone economic outlook is prompting property investors to act more cautiously. Activity in Q3 was driven by deals initiated before the summer’s turmoil. We agree with survey... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Break-up fears pile pressure on the core There are still few signs that euro-zone policymakers are close to placing a firewall around the region’s most troubled economies. This, combined with the deteriorating economic outlook, led some of... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the new Spanish Government steady the ship? Although Spain is in a rather better position than its Southern European counterparts, the next Government still faces huge challenges and is unlikely to overcome them without outside help. 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.) The euro-zone’s modest expansion in Q3 could be the last for some time. With more timely indicators already very weak and the debt crisis set to deepen, the risks of another very sharp recession in... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unlikely to fire the silver bullet The idea that the European Central Bank (ECB) will fire a “silver bullet” into the euro-zone crisis by printing vast amounts of money to prop up the Italian bond market looks optimistic. Not only is... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall back in 2012 and 2013 We expect the euro-zone to fall back into recession in 2012 and 2013. We have therefore cut our commercial property forecasts to reflect the weaker economic backdrop. Over the next two years, we... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deepening crisis to prompt widespread recession The euro-zone debt crisis is having a severely damaging impact on the European macro-economy. Not only are the troubled peripheral economies set to remain deep in recession, but growth prospects have... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Oct./Sep.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment data might leave the hawks at the ECB still concerned about underlying price pressures. 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Stability of Spanish office capital values won’t last much longer The stability of Spanish office capital values over the past two years does not preclude a second leg to the downturn. If anything, the prospects for office occupier demand and rental values have... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish industrial rental downturn has further to run July’s fall in Spanish industrial production extended the recent run of disappointing manufacturing data. The deteriorating outlook for occupier demand suggests that take-up levels will remain at very... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Final, Q2) The final GDP figures from Spain confirmed that its recovery remained sluggish in Q2 and did nothing to alter our view that the economy may tip back into recession before too long. 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB purchases may have little lasting impact The ECB’s purchases of Italian and Spanish Government bonds have drawn a very positive initial response in the markets. But there are some good reasons to doubt that it will be sustained. 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
