Europe Economics Update Spanish sovereign bail-out still looks very likely The measures announced at last night’s finance ministers’ meeting to support Spain don’t alter our view that the country will require a full sovereign bail-out in the fairly near future. 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Most European office markets to suffer drop in take-up Our recent finding that the investment component of the German national accounts data is related to office take-up volumes seems also to apply in most other European office markets. Accordingly, our... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) The latest fiscal data provide further support to the view that recessions in the southern euro-zone economies are causing the governments there to fall behind their fiscal targets. 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain: A €100bn bail-out ‘ceiling’ is not high enough The €100bn bail-out ‘ceiling’ for Spanish banks may provide a smaller ‘safety margin’ than the recent independent audits suggested and won’t address the country’s broader economic and fiscal problems... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bail-out talks are the next key hurdle for Greece The formation of a coalition Government headed by New Democracy has reduced the chances of Greece exiting the euro-zone imminently. But the political situation remains precarious and the Government’s... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain moving quickly towards a sovereign bail-out The recent further rise in Spanish government bond yields underlines the fact that the banking bailout will not address the country’s broader fiscal problems. A sovereign bail-out is all but... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rents in Madrid likely to underperform relative to Barcelona Office rental values in Spain are forecast to fall by around 15% over 2012-13 as occupier demand weakens further. But on a city level, Madrid is exposed to greater downside risks than Barcelona. This... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking union is only part of the answer Talk of an EU banking union provides some hope that policymakers are starting to address one of the potential triggers for a euro-zone break-up. But the prospect of a full-blown banking union seems as... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain will need more help Spain’s banking bail-out may help to pull the country away from the centre of the euro-zone storm for a while. But we doubt that it is the only support that the country will need. 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What might a bail-out for Spain look like? Events are moving fast in Spain. After denials from Spanish government officials in recent months about the need for a bail-out, external assistance now seems inevitable with EU officials reported to... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can a bail-out solve Spain’s problems? A worsening domestic economy and limited scope for the state bank reconstruction fund (FROB) to defuse Spain’s banking crisis, make an EU/IMF bail-out package look unavoidable. But in our view, it is... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May) May’s EC business and consumer survey underlined the enormity of the task facing euro-zone policymakers if they are going to convert the growing “consensus” on the need for stronger growth across the... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The consequences of a euro-zone break-up Markets have come around to our long-held view that some form of euro-zone break-up is likely, but opinion remains divided on the likely economic and financial fall-out. While even a limited and well... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spanish banking links revisited The direct exposure of Latin American banks to the deepening crisis in Spain is not as great as it seems at first sight. Even so, there are at least three ways in which the region’s banks could be hit... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What will a euro-zone break-up involve? Our view that the euro-zone needs to break up has become more widely accepted, but many commentators still argue that, in practical terms, it simply can’t happen. In this Focus, we outline the... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic slowdown triggers fall in capital values The euro-zone economy narrowly avoided falling back into a technical recession in Q1. But GDP merely stagnated and survey evidence point to renewed falls to come. In any event, the economic slowdown... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
