DM Valuations Monitor Credit spreads in Italy and Spain are likely to rise further The average yield spread of 10-year Italian and Spanish sovereign bonds over German Bunds has surged by almost 20 basis points over the past month. We suspect that it may rise further. One reason for... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Stalled recovery adds to pressure on policymakers The European economic recovery has weakened, with the euro-zone now at risk of recession and countries outside the region feeling the effects on their exports. While the euro-zone’s peripheral... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is now the time to be buying Spanish industrial assets? Gradually improving economic growth and tightening supply in prime locations is set to produce rental growth in the next 12 months. With industrial yields elevated relative to both office yields and... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will office rental value growth in Barcelona outpace Madrid? To date, the stronger recovery in office-based employment in Barcelona has yet to be reflected in a rise in rental values. But over the next couple of years, we suspect that rents in Barcelona will... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Prov.) The stagnation of the euro-zone economy in the second quarter further underlinedthe need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to take bolder policy action to addressthe continued weakness of the... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s small rise in German industrial production was a huge disappointment, andsuggests that activity in what has been the euro-zone’s strongest economy stagnatedin Q2. This will add to pressure on... 7th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Credit conditions easing, but still very tight The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey (BLS) added to the evidence that improving conditions in the euro-zone’s financial sector are finally feeding into the real economy. But it will be a while before... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q2 est.) The Banco De Espana’s estimate that Spanish GDP rose by 0.5% in Q2 suggests thatSpain may have been one of the strongest euro-zone economies last quarter. But wedoubt that Spain’s recovery can... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets? While the European economic recovery probably picked up a bit of speed in the second quarter of the year, there are growing signs that Q2 was as good as it is likely to get. Activity indicators in the... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production (May) Germany’s May industrial production figures arguably brought the strongest warning yet that the euro-zone’s fledgling economic recovery is in danger of grinding to a halt. 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Peripheral industry on its feet but not ready to run Industrial production is now expanding faster in the euro-zone’s periphery than in the core. While this reflects progress made towards restructuring in the peripheral economies, industry still faces... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How much upside is there for Spanish office rents? Despite dropping by 40% since 2008, we are not convinced that prime rental values in the main Spanish office markets are now obviously too low. While we do envisage a recovery over the next few years... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German engine can’t power euro-zone recovery While the German economy expanded by an impressive 0.8% in Q1, this failed to spur growth elsewhere in the euro-zone and the region's GDP rose by just 0.2%. Possible explanations for this are the fact... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production (Mar.14) March’s industrial production data for key euro-zone countries suggested that the recovery in the sector failed to pick up any momentum and that even Germany experienced a modest slowdown. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Negative rates are no silver bullet on their own A negative interest rate on banks' excess reserves at the ECB might have some effect on banks' behaviour and at least prove that the ECB is prepared to follow its dovish words with action. But it must... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers persist The recovery in the European economy appears to have picked up a bit of speed in the early months of 2014. The euro-zone now looks set to expand by 1% or more this year, a significant improvement on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
