Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Israel’s 4th wave, CBRT pressure Romania's new finance minister has a tough job ahead to keep the public finances on a sustainable path, especially as the PM is seeking to raise spending. Elsewhere, Israel's fourth virus wave has... 20th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from major emerging markets have picked up sharply over the past couple of weeks, driven by virus concerns, growing expectations that the Fed will begin tapering asset purchases... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) Polish industrial production continued to expand at a solid pace in July while retail sales fell as the re-opening of the economy shifted spending away from goods. The big picture is that the economy... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Watch Oil prices would still fall even if OPEC expands In this Energy Watch, we discuss the future of OPEC and its role in the oil market. While we suspect that its membership may expand, we think that its ability to influence oil prices will fall over... 19th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Booster jabs accelerate as virus cases surge in Israel The spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant has driven a sharp rise in virus cases, hospitalisations and deaths in Israel this month. Evidence of waning vaccine efficacy prompted the... 18th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Five years on from the “End of a Golden Age” Five years ago this October, we published a piece arguing that the “golden age” for emerging markets had ended and that they were entering a period of permanently weaker growth. Since then, many of... 18th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2021) The Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed that the regional recovery gathered pace last quarter as economies reopened following virus waves in Q1. We expect the recovery to remain strong... 17th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q2 2021) The larger-than-expected 15.4% annualised expansion in Israeli GDP in Q2 took the economy to more than 3% above its pre-pandemic level. While we expect growth to slow markedly in Q3 as the re-opening... 16th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2021) The larger-than-expected 10.3% y/y expansion in Russian GDP in Q2 suggests that the economy returned to its pre-pandemic level as growth was driven by broad-based strength across sectors. Growth is... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s political noise, strong inflation numbers again Political upheaval in Poland this week after a coalition partner pulled out of the government has increased the possibility of elections before 2023 and raises concerns that the Polish Deal may... 13th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q2 2021) The 1.9% q/q expansion in Poland’s GDP in Q2 left the economy 0.5% above its pre-pandemic size and we expect another strong reading for Q3 as activity in consumer-facing sectors continues to recover... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan disappointed as CBRT stands pat Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left interest rates on hold at 19.00% today and, with inflation likely to remain elevated over the coming months and the economy having bounced back quickly from May’s... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for June confirm that the economy bounced back quickly from May’s three-week lockdown. This, coming alongside the further jump in inflation in... 12th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Outlook darkens The disbursement of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from the IMF later this month is a boon for some Frontier Markets that face very high borrowing costs. But beyond this, it is hard to find many... 10th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Russia’s lending boom: time to ring the alarm bells? The strength of mortgage and unsecured consumer lending in Russia has concerned the central bank and raises the threat of a build-up of financial vulnerabilities, but for now we think these risks are... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
