Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s “new economic model” to amplify old problems The “new economic model” adopted by Turkey’s government is likely to mean low real interest rates and a persistently weak lira, but it will come alongside a shift towards capital controls, ever higher... 18th January 2022 · 16 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We do not expect the recent dollar weakness to last Despite several events in the US this week which would usually point to a stronger dollar – the highest US inflation print since the early 1980s, hawkish comments from both Chair Powell and Vice Chair... 14th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron sweeps across the emerging world The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s... 14th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-NATO talks crumble, CBRT’s reserves plunge A tense week of negotiations between Russia, the US and NATO have ended with what now seems to be a more serious ratcheting up of tensions over Ukraine. It seems like that Russia’s recent belligerent... 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM equities may continue to underperform in 2022-23 We think that emerging market (EM) equities will continue to underperform their developed market (DM) peers over the next couple of years, even if that underperformance is far less stark than it was... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for November suggest that the economy held up relatively well in the middle of Q4. But the effects of the recent currency crisis are likely to... 13th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Russian inflation held steady at 8.4% y/y in December, but we think it will rise a bit further this month and prompt the central bank to deliver a final 75bp rate hike, to 9.25%, at its meeting next... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key calls for Emerging Europe in 2022 We think GDP growth will come in below expectations this year. Even so, inflation will ultimately settle at a higher level than is currently appreciated and this feeds into our hawkish interest rate... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What’s in store for retail this year? An expected improvement in spending is encouraging for prime high streets this year. Nevertheless, with a growing share of retail turnover made online and city-based retail more vulnerable to remote... 10th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Defiant NBP, Turkish policymakers tighten their grip Poland's central bank continued its tightening cycle this week, but recent comments from policymakers have made us concerned that it is failing to appreciate the extent, persistence and possible... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for December showed that the Eastern European economies rebounded last month as Delta virus waves abated, but Central Europe saw further weakness. With the... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for European property in 2022 We don’t expect slower near-term economic growth to derail the property upturn in 2022. Rather, we think that continued falls in property yields and a rebound in all-property rents will support... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which predictions did we get right in 2021? While office performance surprised on the upside and we could have been much bolder in our forecast for industrial yield falls, our other forecasts for 2021 proved to be broadly correct. 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: wage-price spiral a growing risk in 2022 With central banks across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) raising interest rates to tackle inflation, we think the risks of a wage-price spiral are low. Even so, persistently above-target inflation... 5th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturers end 2021 on a solid footing December’s PMIs suggest that EM manufacturers ended last year on a firm note, with headline indices rising in much of Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia. Encouragingly, input and output price... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
