Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP steps up tightening as inflation risks heighten The National Bank of Poland (NBP) stepped up the pace of tightening today with a 75bp interest rate hike, to 3.50%, and the marked deterioration in the inflation outlook due to the war in Ukraine is... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of an end to Russian energy trade We think that a complete ban on Russian energy imports would cause the prices of Brent crude oil and European natural gas to surge to $160pb and €300/MWh in the near term and settle at still very high... 7th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices could rise further Although many commodity prices are already back to levels last seen in 2008, there is still scope for prices to rise further if Western sanctions are extended to cover energy commodities. (At the end... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia plunges into economic & financial turmoil Russia has fallen into chaos and we’ll get a clearer sense next week of the impact that sanctions are having on the economy. A dollar bond repayment by Gazprom on Monday will be a litmus test of the... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack The Russia-Ukraine war and currency markets The dollar has generally strengthened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while European currencies have generally been the hardest hit by the war. But unlike in most risk-off episodes, the currencies... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Precious Metals Update Sanctions are the catalyst for palladium price gains The constraints on Russian supply will work in tandem with an improving demand-side picture from auto production to keep palladium prices elevated. As a result, we have revised up our price forecasts... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Ukraine war puts ECB plans on hold At next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council will stress that it will ensure banks have ample liquidity and that financial stability will be preserved while implementing EU sanctions... 3rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update War in Ukraine raises EM inflation risks The rise in commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine will push up EM inflation and there are further upside risks from weakening currencies and potential supply chain disruptions. In terms of the... 3rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into supply-chain links with Russia While supply-chain links between the EU and Russia and Ukraine are small, shortages of seemingly obscure inputs can cause significant disruption, and add to price pressures, if alternatives cannot be... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate leapt again to reach 54.4% y/y in February due to the combination of the lira’s collapse in late-2021 as well as higher domestic energy prices and a large minimum wage... 3rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Bonds & Equities War-induced rally in DM bonds may not be sustained While the war in Ukraine may well push down the yields of long-dated developed market government bonds further in the near term, we think that a sustained rally in bonds is unlikely unless the war... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic consequences of the war One immediate effect of the war in Ukraine will be to push Russia several places down the league table of the world’s largest economies. However, the impact on the global economy over the long run... 2nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update An Iran deal will only partially ease oil supply fears As fears over Russian oil supply mount, negotiations between Iran and world powers on reviving the Iran nuclear deal have been advancing in Vienna. If the nuclear deal is revived, we think there will... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the Russia default risk? Russia has already suspended the transfer of coupon payments on local-law sovereign debt to foreign investors, and the likelihood that the government and companies are unable or unwilling to make... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update One chart to watch on Russia’s banking sector The spread of Russian interbank interest rates over the central bank’s policy rate – which was hiked aggressively on Monday – has widened pointing to some stress in the banking sector. But for now it... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics How could Europe cope without Russian energy? The EU would have a number of options to help compensate if Russian gas supplies were to be turned off, but in practice we suspect that some degree of power rationing would be needed. Past episodes of... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
