Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Falling gas prices doesn’t mean energy crisis is ending The continued fall in European natural gas prices this week is a positive development for economies across Central and Eastern Europe, but the energy crisis will not go away anytime soon and we still... 21st October 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) September’s industrial production and retail sales figures out of Poland showed that activity continued to recover last month. Even so, it may be touch-and-go as to whether Poland’s economy was... 21st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Lira-isation” policies are no cure for Turkey’s problems Policymakers in Turkey have doubled down on their new economic model of “lira-isation” by pursuing more extreme de-dollarisation policies in recent months. These appear to be having an impact in terms... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) 20th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Gloomy outlook for Prague office rents The post-pandemic rebound in the Prague office market is likely to prove short-lived. With the Czech economy slowing and employment expected to contract, occupier demand will soften just as new office... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Inflation & external pressures force the MNB’s hand Developments this week underscore that Hungary is facing much stronger inflation and external pressures than its regional peers. These forced the central bank (MNB) to tighten monetary policy further... 14th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region heading for recession Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost... 13th October 2022 · 29 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) The latest activity data show that retail sales and industrial production bounced back in Turkey in August, but this follows a period of softness and industry is on track for a large quarterly... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Inflation continued to fall in Russia in September, to 13.7% y/y, but at a much slower rate than in previous months. The recent period of strong disinflation is coming to an end and the central bank... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly War developments destabilising Russia, NBP’s final act The macroeconomic fallout from Russia's call-up of military reservists in September and its formal annexation of Ukrainian territory last week has continued to mount, resulting in tighter Western... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI stays the course with another 75bp rate hike The Bank of Israel delivered another 75bp interest rate hike to 2.75% today and while the accompanying communications were not particularly hawkish, it’s clear that the tightening cycle is far from... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.) Manufacturing PMIs for September were a mixed bag, but continued to paint a weak picture of industrial activity in Turkey, Czechia and Poland in Q3. In contrast, the downturn in Russian industry... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE central banks treading a difficult path Central banks in Central Europe are attempting to draw their tightening cycles to a close, but they are treading a difficult path given the strength of inflation and mounting downward pressure on... 30th September 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: monetary tightening now biting hard Higher interest rates are already having an impact in CEE and a large part of the tightening of monetary conditions has yet to feed through. This will add to the headwinds facing growth in the coming... 29th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September out of Central and Eastern Europe revealed a further decline and suggest to us that the region as a whole is at the start of a recession. Meanwhile... 29th September 2022 · 3 mins read
