Europe Commercial Property Update

Drop back in office completions to support prime rents

Completions in Europe are set to increase over the next year or so as construction delays unwind, which will contribute to rising vacancy. However, we expect the upward pressure from supply to ease...

5th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.)

The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 67.1% y/y in February adds to our concerns given that it comes on the back of a large increase in inflation in January and the strength of...

4th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs?

The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation...

1st March 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.)

The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally ticked up last month, but still suggest that industrial sectors remained weak. In contrast, the increases in the PMIs in Turkey...

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Central and Eastern Europe ended 2023 on a weak note, but the outlook for...

29th February 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q4 2023)

The pick-up in Turkish GDP growth to 1.0% q/q in Q4 was driven by a rebound in private consumption and suggests that aggressive monetary tightening has yet to take the sting out of domestic demand...

29th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Feb.)

The latest activity data for January suggest that Russia’s economy maintained solid growth at the start of this year, which supports our forecast for above-potential GDP growth of 3.0% over the course...

28th February 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Romania needs to reduce its macro imbalances

Romania’s large twin budget and current account deficits remain a key concern. One near-term risk is that fiscal policy stays very loose (or is loosened further), particularly in view of elections...

28th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally fell in February, but still point to regional GDP growth strengthening in Q1.

28th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

Israel’s central bank opted to leave interest rates on hold at 4.50% today – in contrast to the consensus view for a cut – and the communications continued to emphasise upside inflation risks...

26th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE wage growth still hot, new Russia sanctions

The latest wage data released out of Poland and Hungary this week showed that labour cost pressures have remained very strong in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). So despite another slew of...

23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024)

Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The property correction slowed slightly at the end of last year, but we think the fall in capital...

23rd February 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

The hawkish statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 45.00% today supports our view that a shift to monetary easing remains some way off and we...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Jan.)

Poland’s activity data for January suggest that the reacceleration in wage growth at the start of this year supported domestic demand, while the export-orientated industrial sector struggled. We think...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read