Emerging Europe Chart Pack Solid Q2 growth, but strong headwinds persist (Aug 10) Most economies in Emerging Europe posted positive quarterly growth in Q2 and some countries, notably Russia and Turkey, remain on track for an impressive rebound this year. However, a number of... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian retail yield recovery may prove premature The recent sharp fall in Hungarian prime retail yields is encouraging. However, we suspect that the recovery may have got ahead of itself. In our view, the very weak consumer outlook and the potential... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to the surge in Czech retail sales than meets the eye The surge in Czech retail sales over the past couple of months is not as good as it seems at first sight. In particular, the rapid rise in sales volumes appears to owe much to heavy discounting by... 24th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Underperformance of Czech Republic industrial yields is unlikely to last The fact that prime industrial yields in the Czech Republic are lagging the recovery in most of Emerging Europe does not square with the macro data. In addition, with prospects for rental value growth... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers to look through any food price spike (Aug 10) Emerging Europe Central Bank Watch 1 Aug. 2010 EMERGING EUROPE CENTRAL BANK WATCH Economies in Emerging Europe are more vulnerable than those in the West to a spike in wheat prices following recent... 20th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First signs of a drought-related slowdown in Russia July’s ‘Economic & Social Indicators Report’, released earlier this afternoon, contains the first signs that this summer’s droughts and associated wildfires have begun to hit activity in some sectors... 18th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe heading for a jobless recovery History suggests that the economies of Central Europe (Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic; the CE3) have in the past had to grow by between 3.0%-3.5% in order to create jobs. But the region’s... 18th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The recovery gains pace, but is still likely to fade The raft of preliminary Q2 GDP releases from Emerging Europe this morning paint a broadly positive picture. But given the significant headwinds still facing the recovery, this may be as good as it... 13th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Baltic States: recovering, but a long slog still lies ahead In light of stronger than expected Q2 GDP data from the Baltic States over the past few weeks, we have raised our GDP growth forecasts for this year and next. But with domestic demand set to remain... 12th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Solid Q2 GDP growth unlikely to last The Russian economy expanded by a solid 5.2% y/y in Q2 (up from 2.9% y/y in Q1). But given the impact of the current drought and, more notably, our view that oil prices will fall back later this year... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish current account risks on the rise Turkey’s current account deficit was smaller than expected in June, but it widened as a share of GDP over Q2 as a whole. What’s more, while the quantity of financing does not appear to be a concern at... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Investment market upturn to fade in H2 2010 (Aug 10) Investment market activity strengthened in the second quarter across the UK, Scandinavia and Emerging Europe with the result that initial yields fell a little further in a number of office, retail and... 10th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: rate hikes remain a distant prospect The Czech National Bank (CNB) today kept interest rates on hold at 0.75% for the second consecutive meeting. We are sticking to our view that rates will remain at record lows until 2012. 5th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Turkey must save its way to sustainable growth Turkey’s medium-term growth prospects are just about the best in Emerging Europe. But realising the economy’s full potential will require raising domestic savings. If the authorities can achieve this... 4th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: repeat of 2007/08 inflation surge looks unlikely Concerns that the current drought in Russia will trigger a surge in food prices and a wider pick-up in inflation are increasing. However, a number of factors suggest that a repeat of the food-driven... 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How far do Emerging European headline rents respond to FX swings? Our analysis of the recent recession confirms that the volatility of headline retail rents in Emerging Europe can be exacerbated by swings in the exchange rate. Indeed, we estimate that each 1% fall... 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
