Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish data spat underlines growing concern over twin deficits The recent spat over an apparent ‘black hole’ in the Polish/German trade balance ignores the fact that inconsistencies between bilateral trade balances are fairly common. But the large ‘net errors and... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia keeps rates on hold, but policy still tightening Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to keep its key interest rates unchanged suggests that inflation concerns have slipped down the government’s list of priorities over the past few... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth to slow in the second half The recovery in Emerging Europe remains broadly on track. GDP growth rates are likely to prove solid, if not spectacular, in a number of countries over the coming years with Turkey, Poland and, in the... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT steps up pace of tightening Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to raise bank reserve requirements by a massive 400bp should help to calm market fears that it has fallen behind the curve in the face of booming... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak inflation data give boost to Poland's doves Slower-than-expected inflation in Poland last month means that an increase in interest rates at the Monetary Council’s April meeting is not quite the done deal that the markets seem to expect. What’s... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would ECB rate hikes mean for Emerging Europe? The likelihood that the ECB will raise interest rates next month increases the chances that central banks in Emerging Europe will tighten monetary policy too. But even so, we do not expect to see a... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How does Russia benefit from higher oil prices? If the recent spike in oil prices is sustained, it could add as much as 1.5% to real GDP growth in Russia this year. But while higher commodity prices may boost growth in the near term, they work... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will industrial outperformance in Prague last? We are not convinced that rental growth in the Prague industrial market will continue to outperform offices and retail. Indeed, the likelihood of a slowdown in external demand, together with the weak... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP pauses as Polish economy slows The National Bank of Poland left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% this lunchtime, as we expected. It was probably a close call and the market is still pricing in further significant hikes in the... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's fiscal reforms: impressive rhetoric but short on detail The long-awaited ‘structural revamp’ of the public finances that was unveiled by Hungary’s government earlier today was big on rhetoric but short on detail. The bottom line is that the government’s... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region's industrial recovery remains strong February’s PMI data from across Emerging Europe show that the region’s industrial recovery is still going strong. Indeed, our regional PMI index is now at its highest level on record. Industry will... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery continues, but at a slower pace Q4 GDP data from across Emerging Europe show that the region’s recovery continued in the final months of last year. Of the economies that have reported data so far, all posted positive quarterly... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia tightens once again Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to increase both bank reserve requirements and its key interest rates by 25bps is a further sign that rising inflation is moving up the government... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How exposed is Turkey to the Middle East crisis? Growing concerns over unrest in the Middle East have sparked a sell-off in equity markets across the world over the past week, and Turkish stocks have been hit harder than most. Yet trade and... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate call on a knife edge, but hike now looking less likely Today’s data from Poland were a bit of a disappointment and leave next week’s interest rate decision finely balanced. Meanwhile, recent comments from MPC members have been as contradictory as ever. It... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary rates on hold but doubts over fiscal plans persist The National Bank of Hungary kept rates unchanged at 6% earlier today, as expected, bringing to an end a short-lived tightening cycle that had spanned three months. Inflation is likely to slow over... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
