Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Non-euro-zone markets will outperform in 2011 and 2012 Within non-euro-zone Europe, commercial property markets in Emerging Europe look set to deliver the highest total returns in both the short and the medium term. We expect Russia and Turkey to record... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: No sign of a boost from higher oil prices... yet Higher oil prices have not yet fed through to a pick-up in the Russian economy. In fact, if anything the annual rate of GDP growth appears to have slowed in Q1. 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poles apart As expected, Hungarian policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at 6.00% for the third consecutive meeting today. As in the Czech Republic, we now expect rates to remain on hold into 2012. However... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of the new CBRT governor? The appointment of Erdem Basci as the new Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey will no doubt lead to concerns about increased government influence over monetary policy. While these concerns are... 14th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgaria: Disinflationary forces to return to the fore Today’s inflation data from Bulgaria were not as bad as the market had feared. Even so, prices are still rising at their fastest pace for two years and, in the context of the currency board... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-crisis: the calm before the storm for CEE markets? We doubt that the bailout of Portugal will draw a line under the problems in the euro-zone’s peripheral economies and fear instead that it may mark the start of a new, more dangerous phase of the... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Can Poland stay ahead of the pack? The near-term outlook for the Polish economy remains amongst the strongest in the region, with GDP growth set to remain close to its potential rate of around 4% for the next couple of years. But the... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: Two speed ahead Romania’s recovery will be two-speed, with industrial output boosted by foreign demand (especially from Germany) while domestic demand will remain sluggish. We expect the central bank to keep rates on... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates close to peaking The accompanying statement to today’s Polish MPC meeting was more hawkish than we had expected but that doesn’t necessarily mean that interest rates have much further to rise. If, as we expect, core... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Poland: which sector offers the best investment opportunities? Recent evidence suggests that European commercial property investors are showing a healthy appetite for the Polish market. We agree that the prospects for returns in Poland are among the best in... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry remains in good shape March’s PMI data from across Emerging Europe were a mixed bag, but the bigger picture is that the region’s manufacturing recovery remains in good shape. Industry will remain the principal engine of... 1st April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumers still on the sidelines Another month, another set of data showing bumper industrial production growth. Turkish industry is leading the way and is now growing by close to 20% y/y. But most other countries in the region are... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: from bright spot to black spot? In some respects, Turkish fourth quarter GDP data simply confirm what we already knew – the economy picked up pace towards the end of last year and ended 2010 on a high note. But the sheer pace of... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ECB rate hikes won't prompt knee-jerk response in CEE The likelihood that the ECB will raise interest rates next month increases the chances that central banks in Emerging Europe will tighten monetary policy too. But the bigger point remains unchanged –... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Capital value growth outlook still weak in Budapest and Bucharest Q4’s rebound in all-property capital values in Budapest and Bucharest is unlikely to mark the start of a rapid recovery. Indeed, weak economic growth prospects argue against a near-term recovery in... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
