Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rebalancing: so far, so good but much further to go February’s current account data show that the rebalancing of the Turkish economy is progressing more smoothly than we had feared. At its current rate of progress, it will still take another 18 months... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Evaluating Hungary’s Early FX Repayment Scheme The introduction of Hungary’s early FX mortgage repayment scheme last September was one in a chain of events that severely dented market confidence in local policymaking and sent the economy to the... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers turn hawkish Polish policymakers left interest rates unchanged this afternoon, but Governor Belka’s subsequent remarks that the MPC were “seriously” considering raising rates has triggered a sell-off in the bond... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: downside risk to steel prices adds to headwinds The relatively modest drop in steel prices that we expect later this year would not be a game-changer for Ukraine, but it would exacerbate growing strains in the balance of payments and public... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Net exports boost Turkish growth The deceleration of the Turkish economy in Q4 was not as bad as we had feared. However, the strength of net exports masked a much sharper slowdown in domestic demand – a process which has much further... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region stabilising, but Q1 growth still lacklustre The manufacturing PMIs for March add to recent data suggesting that, while conditions in Emerging Europe are slowly improving, growth in Q1 of this year was still pretty lacklustre. The sharp jump in... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania cuts rates, Czechs on hold until inflation falls The National Bank of Romania (NBR) cut interest rates today amid concerns that the economy is on the cusp of a new recession. We expect one further cut this year, but the threat of financial contagion... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: from sweet spot to tough spot? The Russian economy is in a sweet spot for now: inflation is at record lows and growth is strong. But we doubt that this will last. Indeed, the authorities are likely to find themselves in an awkward... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Market rally loses its shine The rally in financial markets since the start of the year has lost some steam in recent weeks. Most stock markets have fallen by around 2-3% since the start of the month and most currencies lost a... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and Hungary hamstrung by the markets Central banks in both Hungary and Turkey kept interest rates unchanged today as the recent increase in market tensions snuffed out any hope of a shift towards looser policy. We expect the bias towards... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Polish retail occupier market conditions as healthy as they seem? Yesterday’s retail sales data from Poland suggest that occupier demand for retail floorspace in Warsaw is still strong relative to most of Europe. But the big picture is that consumer spending growth... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Still no sign of a recovery in Budapest office rental values 2011 was a record-breaking year for take-up in the Budapest office market. Yet this failed to drive any form of recovery in office rents. Unfortunately, with employment set to fall and occupier... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish retail sales data overstate consumer demand Poland is one of the few countries in Europe where consumer spending has made a significant positive contribution to growth in recent years. However, we think that actual retail sales may be growing... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Hungary will opt for default We suspect that Hungary will ultimately turn to some form of default as a way out of its current debt problems. The alternative is further austerity – and while we expect Hungary to pursue this path... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s current account deficit not just about oil The recent spike in oil prices will make it harder for Turkey to rein in its current account deficit. But there is more to Turkey’s current account shortfall than simply the high cost of energy... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia continues its strong start to 2012 The usual raft of monthly activity data, released earlier today, confirmed that Russia’s economy remains in a decent shape, helped by the recent rise in the oil price. As things stand, GDP seems on... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
