Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s political turmoil casts doubts on IMF/EU deal The Romanian parliament’s vote to impeach the President leaves the country clouded by uncertainty and casts doubts on the future of the country’s IMF/EU programme. This is likely to keep the leu and... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s talks with IMF/EU won’t be plain sailing The passage of Hungary’s new Central Bank Act has lifted the last obstacle to the start of negotiations with the IMF and European Union. But this is merely the beginning. Numerous issues will need to... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish bank has little room for manoeuvre A combination of slowing inflation and disappointing Q1 GDP data has led to speculation that the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) might start to loosen monetary policy. We are sceptical. With the current... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Poland a “core” property market? One of the key messages from JLL’s 2012 Global Real Estate Transparency Index was that CEE markets – especially Poland – have become more transparent relative to Western Europe. But we think that... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey skirting hard landing but vulnerabilities persist Turkish Q1 GDP data showed that the economy has so far avoided the hard landing that we had feared. What’s more, leading indicators point towards a modest improvement in Q2. Nonetheless, with the... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturers in Central Europe feeling the squeeze June’s PMI data provide further evidence that manufacturers in the highly open economies of Central Europe are being hit hard by the crisis in the euro-zone, while those in Russia and Turkey are... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Most European office markets to suffer drop in take-up Our recent finding that the investment component of the German national accounts data is related to office take-up volumes seems also to apply in most other European office markets. Accordingly, our... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of Russian inflation We estimate that planned hikes in Russian utility tariffs next month and again in September will add a total of around 2.0%-pts to headline inflation, pushing it to 6.5% by the end of the year. The... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech stimulus starts, what next? Czech policymakers have finally responded to the deteriorating growth outlook by cutting interest rates to a record low today. But with little scope for more conventional policy stimulus, we think... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would euro break-up mean for Emerging Europe? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone could knock some 2-3% off the level of Emerging Europe’s GDP by the end of 2013. But a bigger, more disorderly, break-up would... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging European dollar bonds likely to lose their shine Despite the escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone, which has taken a heavy toll on bonds issued by troubled governments within the region, the dollar-denominated sovereign debt of emerging market... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weaker Polish data could bring rate cuts back onto agenda Signs that the Polish economy is slowing should quell calls for rate hikes over the coming months. But growing troubles in the euro-zone mean that interest rate cuts are likely to come back on to the... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook worsens This month’s data brought further evidence – if any were needed – that the euro-crisis is casting a long cloud over Emerging Europe. Business surveys have deteriorated further, suggesting that growth... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC eases slightly, but rates to remain high The Turkish MPC shifted slightly towards easing mode at today’s meeting. Nonetheless, with the current account deficit still large and a sharp rise in short-term external debt, we expect monetary... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are shopping centre development pipelines in CEE too large? A low stock of shopping centre floorspace and relatively fast trend rates of consumer spending growth might suggest that the large shopping centre development pipelines in CEE could be absorbed... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and the IMF revisited With attention fixed on every twist and turn in Hungary’s talks with the IMF, it’s easy to forget why the government first raised the prospect of assistance nine months ago. In short, while the fiscal... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
