Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs data point to rebound in growth in Q1 February’s PMI data add to recent evidence that the slump in Emerging Europe has bottomed out and that growth in the first quarter of this year should be an improvement on the final quarter of 2012... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Crumbling BRICs - will the largest EMs regain their vigour? The recent slowdowns in the BRIC economies are largely structural in nature and so are unlikely to be reversed without wide-ranging economic reform. Slower growth in the BRICs is likely to shave half... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Bottoming out GDP data released over the past month showed that growth in Emerging Europe slumped to a postcrisis low of just 0.8% y/y in the final quarter of last year. Nonetheless, the latest surveys suggest that... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set for a modest rebound Emerging market (EM) inflation looks to have found a floor in late 2012 and is set for a modest rebound over the first half of this year. Food inflation is likely to pick up in the coming months and... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Outlook improves, but downside risks remain Growth in Emerging Europe sank to a post-crisis low in the final quarter of 2012 but the latest surveys suggest that the outlook has brightened a little since the turn of the year. We expect growth to... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cuts again, attention turns to new Governor The impending change at the helm of Hungary’s central bank will lead to further cuts in interest rates over the coming months. But the scope for easing will be determined in large part by whether... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A different take on "currency wars" The “Swan Diagram” – developed by the Australian academic Trevor Swan in the 1950s – offers a fresh perspective on global “currency wars”. It suggests that macro imbalances in those EMs that have been... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Policymakers step-up rhetoric while EM currencies fall Talk of “currency wars” remains rife among EM policymakers but most EM currencies have actually weakened over the past month. This partly reflects growing investor fears of official intervention, but... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Overall EM inflows not at danger levels but country risks remain Capital flows to emerging economies are not yet running at a rate that should be a major cause for concern. But estimates of flows in aggregate miss some of the key risks facing individual economies. 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary's employment puzzle Rising employment has been one of the few bright spots for the recession-stricken Hungarian economy. But this merely reflects the weakness (indeed absence) of labour productivity growth. And as long... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: slowdown deepens The raft of activity data for January suggests that the slowdown in the Russian economy deepened at the start of this year. But while this will add to pressure on the Central Bank to start easing... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers in a Catch-22 Although the Turkish central bank cut interest rates today, it also raised reserve requirements, so the overall impact on monetary conditions is ambiguous. The key point is that policymakers are in a... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4's dismal data a mix of euro-zone and domestic problems The dire set of Q4 GDP data released across Central & South Eastern Europe over the past week or so has led to obvious questions as to how the region is being affected by the crisis in the euro-zone... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export split reinforces concerns of “currency wars” The continued weakness of exports from commodity producers in the emerging world will add further fuel to the debate over “currency wars”. By contrast, exports from manufacturing-focused economies in... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook 2013: a softer year ahead for property Our forecasts envisage that European commercial property markets outside of the single currency region will benefit from the recent lull in the euro-crisis. Although the fundamental economic drivers... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs right to be wary of rapid capital inflows Behind the rhetoric of global currency wars lies a more fundamental concern that loose monetary policy in the developed economies will lead to rapid and destabilising capital inflows to the emerging... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
