Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle slowing down The fact that the Hungarian central bank cut interest rates by just 20bp today highlights that, even though the forint came through the recent EM sell-off relatively well, Hungary is still highly... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we still worry about EM currency crises? Improved fundamentals mean that currency crises pose a much smaller risk to Emerging Markets now than in the past. But it would be unwise to assume that the coast is therefore clear for the emerging... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness unlikely to cause EM inflation to rise The sell-off in emerging market (EM) currencies this month is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM-wide inflation. Indeed, looking ahead, we think the outlook for EM inflation is fairly benign. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble stays out of the firing line... for now The ruble has fared surprisingly well during the latest EM sell-off, in large part due to the fact that oil prices have edged up over recent weeks. Nonetheless, the ruble is still weaker than the... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Coming through the EM sell-off relatively unscathed Emerging European currencies have generally withstood the recent EM financial market sell-off relatively well. Meanwhile, equities in Central Europe have made strong gains over the past month. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three questions (and answers) about the EM currency sell-off The renewed sell-off in EM currencies has cast a fresh spotlight on vulnerabilities in the emerging world. In this Update we answer three key questions that have been raised by recent market moves. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey continues to tighten The further hike in Turkish interest rates today merely underlines how vulnerable the economy is to the recent slowdown in capital inflows. Looking ahead, much will depend on how the current EM sell... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a modest improvement, but growth remains weak 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia recession may be short-lived but growth will remain weak The slump in Q2 growth in Russia reported last week appears consistent with the economy having fallen into recession during the first half of 2013. The good news is that barring an unforeseen external... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw office market rental downturn has a little further to run The latest data suggest that occupier demand in the Warsaw office market is beginning to strengthen again. But with employment in the Polish capital still low and the near-term office development... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of improvement in China and Brazil The past month has brought some hope that economic conditions in two of the four BRICs – Brazil and China – might be improving. In China, data on trade, industrial production and investment have all... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth comes with mounting risks Turkey’s economy has picked up pace over the first half of this year, but this has been fuelled by a sharprise in credit and has come at the expense of a renewed widening of the current account... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe picks up pace in Q2 Growth in Central Europe accelerated in Q2, helped by improving conditions in the euro-zone, but the economies of South Eastern Europe seem to have weakened once again. The potential for further flare... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What does the “services revolution” mean for EMs? Improvements in technology are making it increasingly easy to trade services. This has led some commentators to argue that services can become a more viable driver of EM growth, allowing EMs to break... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia enters recession Second quarter GDP data from Russia were not only much weaker than expected – according to our estimates they are also consistent with the economy having fallen into recession during the first half of... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia bides its time The Central Bank of Russia kept interest rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement provides some hints that policy may start to be eased over the coming months. Even so, dramatic cuts in... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
