Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE now better placed to weather a Greek exit from the euro-zone Renewed fears of a Greek exit from the euro-zone have raised concerns about contagion to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This is understandable. After all, when the threat of euro-zone break-up... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in Czech inflation last month, to just 0.1% y/y, was due to both base effects and the impact of lower oil prices on fuel inflation. There is a risk that the headline inflation rate... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) December’s Economic Sentiment Indicators provide further evidence that, despite the headwinds from both the euro-zone and Russia, growth in Central and Eastern Europe held up well at the end of last... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey & Hungary Republic Ind. Prod. (Nov.) The weakness of Turkish industrial production in November, which grew by just 0.7% y/y and fell by 0.1% over the month, provides an early sign that GDP may have contracted over the quarter. In... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC hints at rate cuts, but spooked by Greece The National Bank of Romania’s Governor, Mugur Isarescu , struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference, which suggests that the interest rate cut earlier today to a fresh record low of 2... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing activity still subdued The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world was steady, but still relatively sluggish, at the end of last year. Manufacturers in some of the non-BRIC EMs, such as... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three political risks to watch out for in 2015 2014 was the year that political risk returned to Emerging Europe and the political and economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to reverberate this year too. But we think there are... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The sharp fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 8.2% y/y from 9.2% y/y, was an encouraging development, but core inflation remained extremely high. Elsewhere, December’s batch of manufacturing PMI... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Oil price collapse lowers Russian ruble’s fair value Last week, the Russian finance ministry claimed that the ruble was “extremely undervalued”. Admittedly, it made the claim when the currency was around 70 to the dollar, and the exchange rate has since... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil price slide prompts withdrawal from emerging markets Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Who is most exposed to the debts of oil majors? The fall in oil prices has raised concerns about oil majors’ ability to service debts accumulated during the good times. Risks are concentrated in Latin America, but there is plenty that both... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia spirals into crisis The Russian ruble has stabilised in recent days, but only after the central bank introduced a raft of measures to limit ruble liquidity – including a massive hike in interest rates – and, perhaps more... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate ceilings? The Swiss National Bank introduced a negative deposit rate yesterday, but its main tool to combat the threat of deflation is a ceiling for the Swiss franc. Given the continued threat of deflation and... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price falls won’t let high inflation EMs off the hook Although the recent drop in oil prices will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in most parts of the emerging world, it won’t provide a lasting solution for the economies with high... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
