Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jan.) & Czech CPI (Feb.) The 2.2% y/y fall in Turkish industrial production in January was distorted a little by base effects, but even so the data highlight the extent to which the economy is struggling. The consensus view... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Venezuela in crisis, but EM risks generally low Our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI) reports that the overall level of emerging market (EM) risk remains at a decade low, but that concerns remain about a handful of countries. Venezuela... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation continued to accelerate in February, rising to its fastest pace, at 16.7% y/y, in more than a decade. We think inflation is close to peaking, but the big picture is that it’s likely... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing activity steady, but sluggish The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing growth across the emerging world remained stable, yet sluggish, in the first couple of months of this year. Some of the larger EMs are still struggling... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region’s banks in better shape to weather an external shock The provisional approval of the extension of the Greek bailout has calmed the markets, but the bigger picture is that the road ahead is still long and bumpy. This means that a Greek exit from the euro... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s central bank hikes rates to stem hryvnia crisis The hike in Ukraine’s discount rate by 10.5% to 30% today is a desperate attempt by the National Bank to regain control of the currency, having botched its attempt to tighten capital controls over the... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.5% y/y, was probably temporary and we think the headline rate should edge down over the coming months. But the bigger picture is that Turkish price... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble rally largely explained by oil rebound The ruble has sold off today but this follows strong gains in recent weeks that made it the best performing EM currency in February. There are several factors that could explain the rebound in the... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The most striking point from February’s batch of Emerging European manufacturing PMIs was the rebound in the Russian figure, which some have pinned on import substitution. However, our sense is that... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Time for EM equities to shine? After a tough end to last year, emerging market equities have continued to pick up over the past month. Admittedly, they have lagged behind equities in developed markets, which have performed very... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Europe able to weather any disruption in Russian gas supplies We do not expect the latest dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas to disrupt the supply to Western Europe. But even if did, the EU should still be able to cope reasonably well as warmer... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling energy prices push many EMs into deflation Concerns over deflation have started to resurface across the emerging world. But the latest deceleration in inflation has been driven by last year’s plunge in oil prices. Accordingly, we continue to... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown continues Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth has dropped to just 4.0% y/y – a low not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009. Much of the latest slowdown appears to... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) brought further evidence that most economies in Central and South Eastern Europe are weathering twin headwinds from Greece and Russia relatively well... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian consumers feel the squeeze The latest data have given mixed signals on the performance of Emerging Europe’s economies. The encouraging news is that growth in much of Central Europe (particularly Poland and Hungary) seems to be... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors shrug off risks from Greece Despite the resurgent risk of a Greek exit from the euro-zone, investors have so far remained relatively relaxed about the possible effect on emerging markets. Admittedly, there were further net... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
