Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian leu: is this the start of a big depreciation? The strong lead for far-right candidate George Simion in Romania’s presidential election, and the collapse of the coalition government last week, led to the largest one-week fall in the leu since 2009... 14th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Trump arrives in a much-changed Middle East Donald Trump has arrived in the Middle East and changes in the power and influence of the region’s actors mean that he will find a very different region to the one during his last visit in 2017. Iran... 13th May 2025 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania on the rocks after election re-run The strong showing for far-right nationalist, George Simion, in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled Presidential election on Sunday has deepened the country’s political crisis, and the fallout in... 9th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: What next for OPEC+ policy?; EU ban on Russian gas Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we now expect the group to unwind the remaining ~3mn bpd of voluntary output cuts at a decent clip... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM trade is performing well, but surveys look worrying The trade data available for March and April suggest that a large number of EMs have benefitted from a front-running of tariffs in recent months, particularly those across Asia (Taiwan, Vietnam and... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (May) The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.50%, but we think that this may mark the end of its easing cycle. Our forecast for the policy rate to remain on hold at 3.50% over the... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Presidential Election (1st Round) Far-right candidate George Simion emerged as the clear frontrunner in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled presidential election and is now the favourite to win the second round on 18 th May. His... 5th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tariffs starting to weigh on EM manufacturing sentiment The manufacturing PMIs show that US trade policy weighed on sentiment across the emerging world, although the falls in the surveys arguably weren’t as bad as might have been feared. In India’s case... 2nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Russia heading to recession? Romania election re-run The latest data out of Russia suggest that the economic slowdown we expected is happening more abruptly than we thought likely. A technical recession over the first half of this year is now a clear... 2nd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The manufacturing PMIs across Central and Eastern Europe held up relatively well in the face of higher US tariffs, but forward looking components of the surveys suggest conditions may deteriorate... 2nd May 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2025) Higher US import tariffs and softening expectations for global growth have caused large capital outflows from EMs. But our currency crisis risk indicators suggest that EMs are well placed to weather... 30th April 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Apr.) The larger-than-expected fall in Polish inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in April, is probably enough to tip the balance at the central bank towards restarting the monetary easing cycle next week. We are now... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q1 2025) The Q1 GDP data released out of Hungary and Czechia showed that momentum in both economies slowed at the start of this year, with Hungary suffering a renewed contraction. The risks to our below... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Five questions on Romania’s rescheduled election This Update answers five key questions on Romania’s rescheduled presidential election, the first round of which takes place on Sunday 4th May. A victory for far-right frontrunner George Simion would... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
