Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.75%, and we think that the scope for further interest rate cuts this year has become more limited. We had previously been forecasting... 26th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2025) The outlook for EM GDP growth appears increasingly challenging and our growth forecasts for this year generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue although, outside Asia, high... 26th March 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will the bout of EM protests have? The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. It... 25th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey fallout, Polish rate outlook The arrest of a leading opposition politician in Turkey on Wednesday has triggered a major sell-off in the country’s stock market and currency – which has continued today – and serves as a stark... 21st March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 21st March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) to hike its overnight lending rate from 44% to 46% today suggests that policymakers have been spooked by the market volatility yesterday and are keen to... 20th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turmoil in a few EMs not a sign of widespread risks The financial market sell-offs in Indonesia, Turkey and Colombia this week are, in part, a reflection of concerns about strained balance sheets. We think that vulnerabilities in some frontier markets... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: sanctions relief and the economic implications The Trump administration’s efforts to end to the war in Ukraine has raised the prospect of sanctions relief for Russia. This Focus outlines the main sanctions currently in place and the macroeconomic... 20th March 2025 · 24 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the sell-off in Turkey’s markets News that Turkey’s main opposition leader has been arrested today raises concerns over a potential return to unorthodox economic policy in Turkey. While the risks to our relatively upbeat view on... 19th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkish lira plunges The sharp drop in the Turkish lira on the news that the main opposition leader, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has been arrested will complicate the central bank’s task of bringing inflation down and raises big... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Ukraine ceasefire talks, Romania’s political risks The US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine has been met with a mixed response in Russia, with President Putin saying that he “supports the idea” but that it needs “serious reworking”. Achieving... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will defence spending turbocharge economic growth? The rise in defence spending that looks likely in many countries over the next few years will boost demand and output, albeit by less than the headline-grabbing figures might suggest. Meanwhile... 13th March 2025 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A fresh look at the “turnaround EMs” The policy turnarounds that have continued in Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey have led to a sharp reduction in sovereign risk premia but have had mixed success in restoring macroeconomic... 12th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely anticipated, but we think that interest rates will stay higher than most others expect... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
