Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows points to larger outflows from emerging market assets since the start of the Middle East conflict than during the height of the pandemic. EM external positions are... 30th March 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.00% today amid concerns about renewed inflationary and geopolitical risks. Interest rates will remain on hold at the upcoming meetings, but... 30th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New outlook, Turkey FX reserves, Russia’s fiscal boost The early signs suggest that the Iran conflict and surge in energy prices have had only a limited impact on activity across Emerging Europe so far. But balance of payments pressures are building in... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: from disinflation tailwind to inflation overshoot The rise in global energy prices will push inflation back above central bank’s targets across CEE economies this year and prevent further interest rates cuts for the foreseeable future. We’ve lowered... 26th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged at 6.25% today, and we think the recent surge in global energy prices has effectively closed the door on the easing cycle for now. Interest... 24th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks on the sidelines, will Orbán go? Communications from central banks in the region suggest that the uncertainty from the Iran war will prompt them to stand pat for the time being, but strong underlying price pressures mean that... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia sanction relief barely helps; cracks in refined markets The temporary easing of Russian oil sanctions by the US is one of several levers being pulled by policymakers to reduce oil prices from ~$100pb. But despite these efforts, prices will remain high for... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Headaches for central banks If the conflict in the Middle East causes energy prices to rise further – and for a prolonged period – policymakers in Emerging Europe are probably going to be more inclined to raise rates than those... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2026) The conflict in the Middle East will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on energy importers, especially in Asia. EM energy producers outside the Gulf will see a terms-of-trade... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) opted to leave interest rates unchanged today, suggesting that – for now – it deems the effective 300bp of tightening delivered via the interest rate corridor sufficient... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock tests Turkey’s macro stability Turkey’s economy is better placed to face the current energy price shock than it was in 2022, but it is still among the more vulnerable EMs. A temporary price spike will only have a modest effect on... 11th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: gold reserve plan highlights fiscal pressures Proposals by Polish policymakers to use valuation gains from the central bank’s gold reserves to finance defence spending highlight the growing strain on the public finances from the large budget... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy windfall for Russia & woe for Turkey Russia is a beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East due to the rise in energy prices and a likely rise in export volumes. But we don’t think this materially alters the growth outlook. The net... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Middle East conflict gives Russia an oil windfall Russia is a clear beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East, with higher energy prices and, possibly, higher export volumes to Asia likely to narrow the budget deficit. But unless disruption to... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update EM assets have further to fall if Iran conflict intensifies While EM financial markets have started to stabilise following the recent selloff, they are vulnerable to a further deterioration in risk sentiment. Markets in EMEA appear most exposed due to... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The underlying factors shaping the oil price shock While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominates the near-term outlook for energy prices, shifting behaviour in the wider oil market – not least a greater willingness from India and China to import... 4th March 2026 · 6 mins read
