Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC cuts rates, but ruble concerns come to the fore The Russian central bank (CBR) cut its one-week repo rate by 50bp, to 11.0%, today, but the recent fall in the ruble triggered a clear shift in the Council’s tone, and policymakers are no longer... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s mooted new policy rate Comments from Turkish central bank (CBRT) Governor Erdem Basci earlier today that the Bank is planning to move away from using its complex interest rate “corridor” and towards the use of a single... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The falls in July’s Economic Sentiment Indicators across much of Emerging Europe were disappointing in light of the rise in the German survey. But even so, the figures are still consistent with strong... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Russia and Brazil EM growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2009 in May. But the aggregate data have been pulled down by problems in Russia and Brazil. In contrast, other parts of the EM world have seen a pick-up in... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble slump concerns CBR, but easing cycle likely to continue The move by Russia’s central bank to halt its foreign currency purchases suggests that policymakers have become increasingly concerned by the recent slump in the ruble. But even so, the impact on both... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed won’t spark EM sell-off today, but data may add to volatility We do not expect any fireworks in EM financial markets after today’s FOMC statement, but with policymakers likely to reiterate that the timing of “lift-off” will be data dependent our upbeat view on... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation set to rebound despite latest oil price fall The latest fall in global oil prices will not be enough to prevent a rise in EM inflation later this year. It is, however, another reason to think the rebound in inflation will be relatively benign... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No need to fret about recent currency declines Most EM currencies have fallen over the past month, with many now at or close to multi-year lows against the US dollar. For the majority of countries the economic impact of recent currency weakness is... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian debt fears ease a little, but default still likely Fears about a near-term and potentially messy default by Ukraine eased a little this month, providing some respite for the country’s sovereign dollar debt. But even so, some form of default still... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies suffer Frontier market currencies are having a difficult time, with only three of the 31 currencies that we follow gaining ground against the US dollar over the past month. The biggest decline has been in... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek deal brings sigh of relief Greece’s move towards a third bailout has brought relief to Central and South Eastern Europe where concerns about contagion were very real, particularly in the Balkans. While it is too early to say... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Czech policymakers respond to the rising koruna? The strength of the Czech koruna has raised concerns at the National Bank about a fresh slowdown in inflation and, in the first instance, we think the MPC will try to ease pressure on the currency by... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank keeps rates on hold, but hikes on horizon The statement accompanying today’s Turkish central bank decision, at which interest rates were lef tunchanged, made it clear that the MPC isn’t reading too much into June’s much sharper-than-expected... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM rate cutting cycle nearing an end So far in July, more EM central banks have hiked interest rates than have cut rates – the first time this has happened since December last year. We expect to see further policy rate cuts in a few more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank not backtracking on ruble free float Recent concerns that Russia’s central bank is abandoning the ruble free float seem overdone. While policymakers will undoubtedly keep a close eye on the ruble and intervene on the FX market in order... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail set to benefit from strengthening consumer sector The Polish economy has started the year positively, supported by the recovering consumer sector. We expect further improvement in consumer finances to support retailer demand growth. The effect on... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
