Emerging Markets Economics Update Spillovers to EMs from renminbi “devaluation” limited The decision by the People’s Bank of China to reduce the daily reference rate for the renminbi has generated plenty of headlines about spillovers to other EMs. In practice, however, we think that... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jun.) & Hungary CPI (Jul.) Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in dollar terms in June, but only because imports dropped by more than exports. Moreover, the financing of the deficit remains a source of vulnerability... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2) Russia’s recession deepened in Q2 of this year and with oil prices having since taken another leg down, the economic prospects for the coming quarters look pretty grim too. Industry appears to have... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data to highlight divergence in the region The raft of preliminary second quarter GDP data due to be released this week in Emerging Europe is likely to show that the recession in Russia deepened, but that growth in Central and South Eastern... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jul.) The weaker-than-expected 0.5% y/y rise in Czech consumer prices last month may bethe first sign that the recent appreciation of the koruna is starting to drag downinflation. Even so, with the economy... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest commodity collapse Of the major EMs, the biggest losers from the most recent fall in commodity prices have been Russia, Nigeria and Colombia, while the biggest winners have been Korea, India and Thailand. A similar... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey & Hungary Industrial Production (Jun.) The faster-than-expected expansion in Turkish industrial production, of 5.5% y/y, in June was, in part, due to a rebound in the auto sector following strikes in May. But overall, this figure adds to... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hints at policy staying loose for longer The Czech MPC kept its policy interest rate and exchange rate ceiling unchanged earlier today, but the Council dropped its strongest hint yet in the accompanying press release that extremely loose... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2015) The falls in commodity prices over the past year have caused consumer spending to slow in many commodity-exporting countries, with Russia and Brazil being hit particularly hard. Only consumers in... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response World Gold Official Reserves (Jun.) Buying by global central banks picked up pace in June, with Russia once again particularly active. Going forward, we expect further official purchases to be one of several factors supporting the price... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Another bad month for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies suffered more heavy losses in the past month and while further big falls are hard to justify over a medium term horizon, there could be more downside in the near term... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) Russian inflation picked up in July for the first time since March, but this was driven entirely by last month’s hikes in household utility tariffs. In contrast, core price pressures eased. Inflation... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Romanian MPC sounding increasingly cautious Having left its policy interest rate on hold at 1.75% earlier today, the Romanian MPC used this afternoon’s press conference to suggest that the government’s plans to loosen fiscal policy raise the... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still subdued, Central Europe a bright spot July’s PMIs, published earlier today, showed that manufacturers across much of the emerging world struggled last month. The one bright spot was Central Europe, where the surveys improved in spite of... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why have Turkish exports performed so badly? The weakness of Turkish exports over the first half of this year can in part be pinned on temporary factors including bad weather, strikes in the automobile sector and problems in major trading... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) & Turkey CPI (Jul.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that the escalation of the Greek crisis had little impact on manufacturing in Central Europe. Meanwhile, there was good news from Turkey as the PMI ticked... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
