Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate hikes looming in Turkey The Turkish central bank left interest rates on hold today, but given the economy’s exposure to Fed tightening and with inflation set to rise even further, rate hikes look likely over the coming... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets rally on election in Turkey, but sell off in Poland The Turkish lira and stock market jumped in the immediate aftermath of the country’s election at the start of the month, which lifted the political uncertainty that had weighed on investors since June... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Yield compression to slow in 2016 Since our last Analyst, the greatest change has been to our yield forecasts, which are now expected to decline further than previously expected in the next couple of years. We also envisage them... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier markets scramble as Fed hike approaches Central banks across the world’s frontier markets are preparing themselves as the US Federal Reserve finally moves toward its first rate hike in nine years. Central bankers in Angola, Ghana, Zambia... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Crisis or recovery? Concerns about the outlook for emerging markets look increasingly overdone. Pockets of vulnerability exist, but in our view EM growth is more likely to recover over the next 3-6 months than it is to... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity price slump produces mixed policy response The slump in commodity prices over the past year has meant central banks in net commodity exporting and importing countries have continued to follow different paths. Despite the hit to growth from... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s slow burning fiscal problem Despite a sharp fall in energy revenues, there is no imminent risk of a fiscal crisis in Russia. Accordingly, we don’t share the view that the government needs to tighten policy immediately; indeed... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM debt problem revisited The past few weeks have seen increased awareness of potential debt problems brewing in the emerging world. In general, debt burdens are lower and more manageable in most EMs than in the past. But... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2015) Lower commodity prices have continued to weigh on consumption in commodity-exporting EMs. Indeed, there are signs that even in those economies where spending had previously held up reasonably well... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that EM capital outflows remained large in October, but they did at least decline from September. This should help to soothe concerns (overstated in our view) about an... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2015) Today’s flash Q3 GDP data confirmed that the Central and South Eastern European economies continued to grow robustly, despite fears of a widespread EM slowdown. Indeed, this year is shaping up to be... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Drag on EM exports from commodity collapse should ease soon EM exports remained weak in September as the drag from lower commodity prices continued to take its toll, even in countries which are not major commodity exporters. However, as this drag fades and... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Sep.) Turkey’s monthly current account balance rose a little further into surplus in September, but this was mainly due to lower energy imports and an improvement in the gold trade balance. The underlying... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Sep.) & Czech CPI (Oct.) The slowdown in Turkish industry in September means that industrial production growth over Q3 as a whole was a little slower than in Q2. Elsewhere, the weaker-than-expected inflation data from the... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland, the PiS and a populist shift Last month’s Polish election heralds a shift towards more populist policymaking under Law and Justice (PiS). In this Watch, we look at which areas are most likely to see a shift in policy and what the... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty causes Romanian MPC to sounds cautious The press conference following the Romanian MPC meeting earlier today confirmed our view that the resignation of the Prime Minister yesterday would prompt the Council to adopt a more cautious line... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
