Emerging Europe Data Response Emerging Europe Data Response The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q2, to 3.8% y/y, provides some rare good news for the economy. However, we think this is likely to be temporary and higher inflation and tighter monetary... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s unemployment puzzle With the Russian economy in a deep recession, the fact that the unemployment rate has remained at historic lows is puzzling. As we explain in this Watch, one explanation may be that large firms –... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which EM currencies are most vulnerable to snap sell-offs? Our Currency Vulnerability Index (Curvi) suggests that the Brazilian real, Turkish lira, South African rand and Colombian peso remain the most exposed emerging market (EM) currencies to snap sell-offs... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Aug.) The fall in Czech inflation in August, to 0.3% y/y, was driven largely by steeper falls in food and energy prices and, as a result, shouldn’t raise too many concerns about the risk of deflation... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2015) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs increased in August to their highest level since the global financial crisis. This was overwhelmingly due to flows out of China. By... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Hungary CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Turkish industrial production in July, coming alongside the fall in August’s manufacturing PMI, reinforces our view that GDP growth is likely to weaken in the... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The rise in Russian inflation in August, to 15.8% y/y, seems to have been driven by the impact of the fall in the ruble. Against this backdrop, the central bank looks likely to keep its benchmark one... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth now not much faster than DM growth On some measures, the slowdown in emerging markets (EMs) in the second quarter of this year meansthat EM growth is now not much faster than developed market (DM) growth. 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) Headline rate The rise in Turkish inflation, to 7.1% y/y last month, provided the first hard evidence that the latest fall in the lira has started to push up price pressures. We expect inflation to rise further... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC sounds dovish as commodity prices fall, data soften Having left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50% earlier today, the Polish MPC struck a relatively dovish note at the post-meeting press conference, reinforcing our view that monetary policy... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will corporate debt be the source of the next EM crisis? We think emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated corporate bonds will perform poorly over the coming years, but we do not agree with suggestions that they will be the source of an imminent EM crisis... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Outlook for EM manufacturers deteriorates further August’s PMIs, published earlier today, paint a gloomy picture of the health of the emerging world.Conditions in manufacturing appear to have deteriorated further across a wide swath of EMs last month... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) August’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe were generally weak, with almost all the headline figures dropping from July. The decline in the Polish survey was the most disappointing of the lot... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness to have mixed impact on EM inflation The recent bout of currency weakness is likely to add to inflation concerns in EMs that have either seen their currencies fall a long way or have limited spare capacity in their economies (mainly... 31st August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) Economic Sentiment Indicators strengthened in most countries across Emerging Europe this month, suggesting that the region continued to grow at a healthy pace in the third quarter. 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s debt restructuring deal only a small step forward Following months of difficult negotiations Ukraine has finally managed to agree on a debt restructuring deal with its creditors. But the deal itself is too small to make much of a dent in Ukraine’s... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
