Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Sep.) The rise in Turkish inflation to a stronger-than-expected 7.9% y/y last month provides further evidence that the latest plunge in the lira is hurting the economy. This reinforces our view that the... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update VW scandal shouldn’t cause Central Europe’s recovery to stall The Volkswagen (VW) emissions scandal has led to growing concerns in Central Europe that, because of the company’s large presence in the region, there could be a heavy economic toll. However, as we... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Time to worry about FX debt in Russia? The fall in the ruble has led to a sharp increase in the foreign currency debt burden for Russian companies. The risks are mitigated to some extent by the fact that the debt is concentrated among... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing slows further September’s PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world weakened further last month, with export orders particularly subdued. But in the EMs that have been in the spotlight... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe brought mixed news. Activity in Central Europe appears to have held up reasonably well, and the surveys suggest that the slump in the Russian... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC warns on inflation pressures Having left interest rates unchanged earlier today, the Romanian MPC once again used the accompanying press conference to warn that looser fiscal policy could lead to stronger inflation pressures. But... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Dollar bond credit spreads unlikely to balloon We do not expect the stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index to rise much further. But with US Treasury yields likely to increase substantially in the months ahead, we think the overall... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds rally on debt deal Ukraine’s debt-restructuring deal has led to a rally in the country’s bond market and eased pressure on the hryvnia . Meanwhile, although most of the region’s equity markets have fallen over the past... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The declines in this month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators across much of Central and Eastern Europe were disappointing, particularly in light of the relatively impressive reading from Germany. But... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slower, but not collapsing Emerging market (EM) growth has slowed further recently, but there is no sign of the collapse that some are talking about. In fact, there is tentative evidence that EM growth has begun to stabilise. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency falls compound inflation troubles for some EMs While inflation in the EM world is low on average, there are big divergences. In particular, many of the economies already struggling with high inflation are also those that have seen their currencies... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s migrant crisis: how might CEE be affected? There are few signs that Europe’s migrant crisis has had much economic impact on Central Eastern Europe (CEE). However, if recent border controls were to become a permanent fixture, the region could... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Another drop in frontier market currencies Uncertainty over the outlook for monetary policy in the US and renewed concerns about the health of China’s economy are weighing heavily on frontier market currencies. The weakest currency has again... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions in Russia to remain tight for some time Credit conditions in Russia have tightened substantially over the past six months or so, with households and SMEs being particularly hard hit. We don’t expect a significant turnaround anytime soon... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC dovish, Ukraine’s suggests further rate cuts coming Having left monetary policy unchanged earlier today, the Czech MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference, although it looks like the strength of the latest economic data prevented... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central & South Eastern Europe a rare EM bright spot Emerging Europe remains a region of two halves. Its two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – will continue to struggle over the coming years as cyclical downturns compound long-standing structural... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
