Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank holds fire, plays a dangerous game The decision by the Turkish central bank to keep interest rates on hold, when hikes had been widely anticipated, will probably result in renewed concerns that the MPC’s decisions are being swayed by... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices add to headwinds facing Russia’s economy The latest fall in oil prices has added to the uncertainty over the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Update we revisit the mechanisms through which lower oil prices affect Russia and outline what... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest oil price fall will keep inflation lower for longer Inflation still looks likely to rise in most EMs next year, despite the recent slump in oil prices. However, the rebound will now be more gradual, which will allow central banks in most economies to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth steady as Fed starts to tighten Emerging market (EM) growth remained fairly stable in October, as it has for much of the year. Looking ahead, we expect EM growth to pick up a touch in 2016, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A bad month for the ruble, other currencies fared well The Russian ruble was the worst performing EM currency over the past month, tumbling by 6% against the US dollar on the back of the latest decline in oil prices. But currencies elsewhere in the region... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.) The latest batch of Russian activity data, released today, show that the recovery slowed last month and, worryingly, this came before the latest fall in oil prices. In contrast to Russia, November’s... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stays dovish, but doesn’t extend koruna cap pledge The Czech National Bank’s MPC once again struck a dovish note in the post-meeting statement and, although the Council didn’t extend its commitment to the koruna cap beyond next year (as we thought... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC signals unconventional easing The accompanying press release to today’s MPC decision in Hungary, at which the deposit rate was left unchanged at 1.35%, was dovish and suggested that unconventional measures to loosen policy will be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening & EMs: what to watch for The likelihood that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates this week has sparked fresh concerns about the knock-on impact on emerging markets. However, we think that most EMs are now well placed... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank waits for inflation drop before easing The accompanying statement to today’s MPC meeting in Russia, at which the repo rate was left unchanged, was decidedly cautious and it’s clear that policymakers are waiting for firmer signs that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack 2015: A year of divergence Economic performances have diverged markedly across Emerging Europe this year, due in large part to the collapse in oil prices. Lower energy costs have kept inflation low in Central and South Eastern... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies stable as Fed lift-off approaches Relative calm in most EM currencies over the past month (the Colombian peso and Russian ruble being the obvious exceptions) supports our view that emerging markets are generally well placed to... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Contraction in EM exports to ease in 2016 EM export revenues are on track to fall by a trillion dollars (equivalent to about 3.5% of EM GDP) this year compared to 2014. Although exports are set to remain weak in 2016, we expect the pace of... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to 5.4% y/y, may help to alleviate some of the political pressure on the central bank to keep policy loose. This reinforces our view that the central... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2016 The EM world looks to have grown by its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2015, but things should start to improve next year. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Declining EU investment funds in 2016 not a disaster for CEE One factor that has supported growth in Central and Eastern Europe this year is a rise in EU structural funding, but this looks set to ease in 2016. As we explain in this Watch, while this will reduce... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
