Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Russia’s activity data for March were weaker than in February, as expected, but the broad trend is still that the slump in the economy is easing. GDP probably contracted by around 2.0% y/y over Q1 as... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Ukraine still needs the IMF At first sight, the sharp fall in Ukraine’s current account deficit over the past few years suggests that the economy’s external vulnerabilities have diminished significantly. But that masks the fact... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The disappointing Polish activity data for March suggest that overall GDP growth may have slipped below 3% y/y. However, we don’t think this marks the start of a sharp slowdown; indeed, we expect... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export decline easing off The rate at which EM exports are declining slowed markedly in February. Rising commodity prices and a rebound in China should boost exports later this year. 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that total capital outflows from EMs eased further in March, reaching a nine-month low of just under $40bn. One reason is that the recent improvement in sentiment towards EMs has... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF Angola last week became the first EM oil producer to turn to the IMF since oil prices started to fall in 2014. In the near-term, we don’t expect any others to follow suit. External risks in EM oil... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Turkey regained competitiveness? There is some evidence that the fall in the lira in the past few years has led to import substitution in parts of Turkey’s manufacturing sector, suggesting that the economy’s competitiveness has... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Resignation of Ukrainian PM reignites concerns over IMF deal The resignation of Ukraine’s prime minister on Sunday, coming alongside waning support for the government, will reignite concerns over the future of the country’s frozen IMF programme. While for now... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Feb.) The decline in Turkey’s current account deficit in February was due almost entirely to lower oil prices, which reduced the energy import bill. We think the deficit is unlikely to improve from here on... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After the panic, what next for EMs? The sense of crisis that had been building in emerging markets has started to ease over the past month or so. So what next? In this Update we identify three risks – China, commodities and the threat... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.) The sharper-than-expected increase in Turkish industrial production in February provides some evidence that local firms are benefiting from a weaker lira. Elsewhere, the decline in Hungary’s inflation... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC conference points to rates staying on hold The Polish MPC made it clear once again at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference that it’s not likely to loosen monetary policy in the near future. Although inflation will remain subdued, so... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Panic ebbs but outlook still subdued The sense of panic about emerging economies that gripped financial markets at the start of this year has eased. This is justified. There are few signs that the emerging world is on the brink of a... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next Turkish central bank governor faces unenviable job Uncertainty regarding who will take over at the helm of the Turkish central bank when the current governor’s term expires this month has raised concerns that a government loyalist could be put in... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Mar.) The sharp decline in Turkish inflation in March, to a seven-month low of 7.5% y/y, was driven by a drop in food inflation, and masked the fact that core inflation remains extremely strong. Even so... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing PMI rises to strongest in a year The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in March to its highest level in a year adds to evidence that economic conditions across the emerging world are improving. The pick-up in the survey in China is... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
