Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s Belka cautions against rate cuts Polish National Bank Governor Marek Belka used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to warn incoming MPC members that there was little to warrant looser monetary policy, but with inflation... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that aggregate EM capital outflows rose to a record $270bn in the final quarter of last year, even more than during the depths of the global financial crisis. This was... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia aside, oil drop will benefit Emerging Europe The renewed slide in oil prices has been an important factor behind the latest deterioration in sentiment towards EMs over recent weeks. However, with the obvious exception of Russia, most countries... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s populist shift bodes poorly for zloty & MT growth The lurch to a more populist policymaking agenda in Poland hasn’t made much difference to the near-term economic outlook, but it will harm medium-term growth prospects and, more immediately, depress... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Final CPI (Dec.) The fall in Russian inflation in December to 12.9% y/y provided the first clear sign that the impact of the 2014 ruble crisis has started to unwind. And we think that inflation is likely to decline... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Dec.) The weak Czech inflation figure for December, of just 0.1% y/y, reinforces our view that the National Bank will extend its commitment to keeping policy loose. We expect the MPC use the next few policy... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crisis or recovery: what next for emerging economies? Many parts of the emerging world are facing a tough year in 2016. But the outlook is not as uniformly bleak as many assume and some important emerging economies could spring positive surprises. 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: what to expect in 2016 So far as Russia is concerned, the best that can be said for 2016 is that it should be a year in which the economy stabilises. Even a marked rebound in oil prices would be unlikely to spur a return to... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Nov.) Turkey’s balance of payments data for November showed that exports remained weak. But, on a more positive note, the current account deficit continued to narrow and the figures also indicated that the... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Nov.) Turkish industrial production expanded by a weaker-than-expected 3.5% y/y in November, but the data suggest that growth over Q4 as a whole was strong. 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC stresses risks from loose fiscal policy Romanian National Bank Governor Mugur Isarescu gave little away at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference, but the tone of the accompanying statement suggested that the MPC is concerned about... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) December’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that activity may have eased a little from November. Even so, it looks like growth over Q4 as a whole was stronger than... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets tumble but PMIs relatively reassuring Equities and currencies have weakened across the emerging world today but the latest economic data, in the form of the manufacturing PMIs, point to a further slight improvement in December. A fall in... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Flash CPI (Dec.) The 0.5% y/y fall in Polish consumer prices was larger than we had expected and, coming alongside the latest fall in oil prices, raises the risk that inflation will remain in negative territory in the... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Turkey CPI (Dec.) December’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provided an early sign that the latest fall in oil prices has hit activity in Russia. Meanwhile, the stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation figure... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Argentina goes orthodox The inauguration of President Mauricio Macri has brought about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Argentina. Over a decade of populist and interventionist macroeconomic policy has... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
